ETH.USD headed to 2-digit prices? Ether lost a Critical Support

Ether has started its next (perhaps final?) leg down.
It should bounce a bit here and then continue down.
Question is: Do we get a lower low that Dec. 2018?

Sorry for the messy chart and so many lines/zones.
Some will say "draw enough lines and some will work".
The idea is to observe the price action at each line/zone.

$ 128.64 -132.36 is first support zone, should bounce a bit.
$ 110.00 - 112.36 seems likely to be hit within a few days.
$ 98.30 - 99.38 is bulls last stand, and $ 67...74 below.

The EW path is just a GUESS.
But the Zones will be SOLID.
Each line will offer new clues.

Comment:

That was a fast decent.
We have hit the first support.

Lets see if we get the wave 4 bounce here.
This thing has a lot of momentum, I do not think it will bounce to the previous resistance for w4, but lets see, maybe a short squeeze will pop it up there.

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Comment:

Zoomed in on the support zone

that is not a promising bounce on top boundary.
I think the lower boundary will be hit and may create the bounce.

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Comment:

Green Shoot spotted.
Our little bounce is actually showing some promise here

probably "famous last words" but IF there is going to be a bounce, THIS is the place for it to start.

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Comment:

OH, forgot to mention that the red 5.226 above ($144.80) will be the target for this bounce

as it proceeds (if it does) I will start measuring the bounce to see if any better targets can be projected.

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Comment:

So our little bounce is still alive, about a 7% move

Resistance above will still be tough, might need a couple of attacks

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Comment:

Nice bounce, still climbing, up 13% now

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Comment:

Following up to last update above ^^
The bounce went for an 18% gain in price, not bad for a scalp.

Throwing a Fib-Ray on the bounce:

we have a perfect confluence of two fib lines at the red arrows.
The red fib is a wave pushing down, blue fib of the wave pushing up.
And we can see the battle at the confluence of the blue 4.618 and red 5.618.
Also, at the Green arrow above, we have another zone of interest and next target if bulls push past our current resistance.

In summary:
$153.31 may well be a temporary top and as long as price struggles below it, it is more likely to drop.
$158.00/16 will be next target if we can get past 153 and then confirm it as support.

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Comment:

Just adding this to my "scrap book"

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Comment:

In regards to the Original Target of $164/65 for wave 4, here are some thoughts in text boxes on this picture

The original target might be too difficult, at least with this particular wave.
Thing could change and probably will, but I am currently leaning towards $157 being the top of wave 4, or maybe one more wiggle.
But certainly, this bounce fits the "ABC" structure that a wave 4 is "supposed" to have.

ie: this is definitely a Wave 4, meaning there is a Wave 5 to come.

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Comment:

Updated Fib of the bounce with a smaller harmonic, I like this presentation MUCH better

And it points even MORE to a topping of this bounce.
We have only a 1 band peak-to-peak increase (4.618 to 5.618).
AND, we can see the price is drifting away from the influence.
ie: This bounce's upward energy is running out. Unless bitcoin makes a further strong run, this will NOT.

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Comment:

For those not following me:
I have posted an update and ALERT on lower tf, as a new Idea here

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Comment:

Still on track with the wave 4 bounce

The only question is whether 4 will reach the original target.
I have posted a smaller tf chart at this link

Please see above Idea for short term updates.

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Comment:

Correction Done? Maybe Not.

Here is the current status of the chart as posted, with all EW as posted

the "Likely to Hit" zone looks LESS likely now, at least on the daily timeframe.

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Zoom IN a bit, Looking the last 12345 down, it is plausible that it completed like this

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Zoom back OUT with the 12345 in place, which was to be leg (E) of wave (C)

An argument can be made that all those waves are ENDED now.

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Zoom IN (34 min) to look at the bounce assuming all waves ended in bottom left corner

Observations:
- Price is still "kind of" paying attention to the red fibs, as if the bounce upset things a bit and it is trying to get back in sync.
- The "higher high" after initial peak was only a little higher, not a sign of great strength by any means.

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Throwing a Fib RETRACEMENT on the bounce spike:

Observations:
- Fib placement is confrimed by the pings on 0.618, 0.328, and 0.236 levels, not to mention the 0.0.
- Should have hit AT LEAST the -0.236 extension pretty much automatically (almost all assets do as a default).
- So this is VERY HEAVY still, such that the quick, strong Impulse generated NOT EVEN ONE Ripple (yet).

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So if we imagine the bounce to be an ABC correction ONLY, (not a 12345 in the making) then maybe like this

So A,B done, and C leg being from .618 retracement to the -0.382 extension should be MINUMUM (for AB=BC lengths) but the -0.618 is also very common target for wave C.

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In SUMMARY:
- Ether is still VERY HEAVY.
- This bounce looks "forced" by BTC's gravity when it spiked.
- There is almost NO follow through, not even the minimum for a sloppy splash.
- Expecting this to be AT BEST and abc correction, with $141.90 at target #1 and $145-ish as target #2

Bulls could prove me wrong by blastting through the 146 resistance zone and hitting say $153 above it.
Otherwise, this mass wants to continue it motion south, and will need a stronger force than Bitcoin's gravity to lift it ...

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