ETH.USD update and ALERT: got 18% bounce, might be DONE for now

Follow up to my bigger plan linked below.

From the original plot below, we boucned EXACTLY where expected, and netted 18% gains so far.
Time to book some profits and let some ride because it looks like we might be topping for now.
Shown are two resistances between here and our original target, plus a Crucial Support below.

Pattern traders might call this an "Inverted Head and Shoulders" (looks to be failing).
I suppose there are Pivots or Moving Averages around here that might be of influence.
This method measures the physics of the wave, and it is says possible end of a wave.

$ 153.31 - 154.32 is immediate resistance, assume move is done unless surpassed.
$ 158.16 - 168.61 is the most I expect out of this wave now, maybe not even that.
$ 144.81 - 145.71 is crucial support that if broken, assume wave 5 is under way.

See the big picture below, where we bounced EXACTLY where plotted, and have netted 18% already (click):
Original Plot still in Play

Comment:

Opps, the link on picture did not work as expected.
Click here to see original plot :

.

Comment:

Battle has begun.
Thus far the Bears appear to have the upper hand.
See text notes in this snapshot:

Not all gloom and doom but waiting to see some bulls signs.
Also, it is very low volume right now, so cant assign too much weight to the movements right now.


.

Comment:

Followup about "Exact Reflections":
Here are 2 examples of what an Exact Reflection can/often does:

Price can turn anywhere, but WHEN it turns EXACTLY at a fib, it has a high chance of move far away.

So now looking for such an exact reflection upward....

.

Comment:

Bulls making another run for it

lets see if we can get to the $158 area

.

Comment:

So we got a push through the immediate resistance zone and came close to next target around $158/59

Zoomed in to see the launch of final push through resistance

interesting that this push launched from a quick stab into the fib.

Zoomed MORE and added a fib of last bounce

DARK Blue arrows show the exact reflections of interest.
LIGHT blue arrows are confirmations of us having the correct Impulse amplitude.
So perhaps it was "supposed" to launch from the first dark blue, but "they" ran stops with the stab at second dark blue arrow.

But notice the peak at exactly the 4.618

Zoomed OUT to put in original context

current peak at blue 4.618 came close to our resistance zone.
The next blue fib, 5.236 is just a hair above, and could well be the next/last target of this wave.

3 takeaways from this:

1) $155.89.90 is now a significant resistance, green 5.618 is reinforced by blue 3.618
2) Existing Red resistance zone can be adjusted to include the blue 5.236 as upper bound.
3) Original Purple zone was ultimate target, which is now reinforced by blue 8.382.
(for some reason band 8 often tends to compress to 382-618 instead of 236-618).

In summary:
Lets see if can get past $155.90 without breaching the zone below, $153.32-154.32.

.

Comment:

Nothing major to report, but some minor observations:

We still have the Reinforced Resistance at $155.89/90 yet to be tested

Also of note, the Exact Reflection off blue 4.618 led to a 3-band pullback to the 1.618

Thus my continued quest for such Reflections, hoping to see some to the upside....

Zooming way in, (1 min candles and last $2 wiggle)

There is a near perfect 5 wave drop, precisely defined by its own fib.
And the same fib implies an ABC bounce from the 12345 drop.
Basically a Bearish sign: the "Impulsive" wave went down, and "Corrective" went up.
So in theory, we are due for another wave DOWN, perhaps retest that recent bottom.

I know this kind of time frame is called "noise" but some people, but I only see fractals.
All time frames and all price ranges have these same Fib /Wave behaviors.
So I like to assemble the SMALLEST but CLEAREST pieces first, then work backwards into the bigger picture.
If something does not fit, then we have to reconsider the details of the bigger picture.
Thus my occasional adjustment of the "Zones" based on smaller tf fibs....

.

Comment:

Speaking of adjusting zones, here are some tweaks to be made:

.

Comment:

Follow up to this picture/count posted above:

Here is what happened since then,

(above pic is contained in yellow box)
So as mention, that first wiggle was a 5-wave move down, with 3 wave move up.
At that time, it seemed likely that would be followed by another Impulse (5 wave) down.
And that next Impulse down turned out pretty big, but STILL following the fib.

So we can paint the "higher order" wave count,

with sub waves (i), (ii), and (iii) done and perhaps (iv) is also done, with (v) under way?


Zooming back OUT, and looking for possible targets

there are two tight confluences between the two fib series, that might make for targets, and if our count is valid, we can expect the lower on around $147.50...

.

Comment:

Following up on the Picture just above ^^
Dip went to lower target and pierced it a bit

and is now approaching the Crucial Support zone below.
Lets see if that holds, it is currently Saturday night in the USA, and volume/liquidity is pretty thin so large, sudden moves are very possible.

.

Comment:

This fib implies completion of one wave anyway, perhaps C of the ABC

fib part wave, with w2 and w5 being five subwaves each.

.

Comment:

Zoomed out with above Fib included, 4.236 noted ,

Right on top of our Support Zone.
If bulls have any desire to buy, THIS is the place to do so.

.

Comment:

Bounce from the 4.236 has been significant

Zooming IN and adding a fib to the bounce

Zooming back OUT with new bounce fib

the blue 3.618 was likely to trigger a pull back
Now bulls need to hold the 2.236 for a bullish bounce.
$151-52 is immediate resistance, $154 or $156 plausible for next targets.


.