ETH may be a long term opportunity

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
612 14
Accumulating on dips and / or buying a breakout may be a long term winning strategy.

Just keep in mind that this falling wedge may technically allow a price < 40$, even if that's not much likely.
So don't be too eager. If you wish to accumulate do it by buying small lots.
Dec 19
Comment: Watch out.
Dec 20
Comment: Now it needs a volume spike.

Dec 28
About to make a move.
Bias is on the bullish side, but watch for 0.382 FIB.
Dec 31
Comment: Mixed picture, but we may have a diamond top.

It's not an *absolutely* reliable pattern, it simply means it is better to tighten TP and SL imho. Better safe than sorry.
Jan 02
Comment: Careful.

Jan 02
Comment: Again, careful.

Jan 02
Comment: Price is much stretched.

ETH should hope in a breakout on volume of BTC or a retrace is likely.
Jan 03
Comment: Being careful pays.
Jan 03
Comment: Bots painting channels.

Awaiting a breakout and some *real* action.
Jan 04
Comment: Still "channeling" ...

Bulls should hope it's an ascending channel and not a rising wedge.
Too soon to say.
Jan 06
Comment: It's clearly a rising wedge and we have a bearish divergence, albeit smail, on TH 4H.

A lot depends on BTC, but ETH itself is mush fragile now.
Jan 06
Comment: And BTC saved ETH's day, basically.
Jan 07
Comment: Finally that rising wedge broke down.

There's a fragile interim support above main support, but now momentum is weak.

Beware, -IF- Bitcoin weakens ETH can turn down sharply from here.
So keep on eye at it as well.
Jan 08
Comment: Update

Jan 09
Comment: Slowly approaching support, key area.

Jan 10
Comment: Break down of support on volume tells the first leg up was done.

The hIgh on Bitfinex was at 167$, which perfectly matches the first resistance level you find on my opening post.

Bulls may try to consolidate / find support onto FIB 0.382 area.
It would be a healthy / normal pullback.

Otherwise an ABC correction is likely and bears will take the lead.
Jan 11
Comment: Crossroad ahead.

A lot of manipulation ongoing on Bitcoin.
So watch out for false signals.
Jan 11
Comment: I've just said it above ... false signals-

Break up, break down, break up, ...
ETH looks drunk today.

The problem are the guys playing with bitcoin.
Use caution, even better stay out.
Jan 28
Comment: ETH is in a bad shape.
It needs to paint a morning star and to recover 112$ ASAP.

Jan 29
Comment: May we have that bounce, pretty please ?

Feb 08
Comment: Better late than never, Mr. ETH ...

here is bounce we were waiting for,

At resistance now.
Feb 09
Comment: Technically there's a decent chance to escape that long and boring descending channel, -IF- ETH bulls manage to paint a flag / pennant from here and breakout within about 48H.

We'll see, it's maybe a 40% chance as a lot depends on what -Bitcoin- is about to do.
Yet it's worth mentioning.
Feb 14
Comment: It tried to break-up as per previous minor hypothesis.
Timing was good, but it fell short.

Problem was that red candle on Feb, 11th.

Not much encouraging now, as it may paint a rising wedge.
Feb 18
Comment: Breakout of channel, on volume.

Feb 24
Comment: Resistance was marked at 166,35$.

Price actually peaked at 166,40$.
A decent forecast ;)
Jun 18
Comment: 3rd resistance at about 350$ is technically in sight, but it has to be reached soon or momentum will vanish.

Decision time on ETH.
Jul 16
Comment: Retrace to FIB 0.382

Come on ETH, time for some reaction.


Third target almost reached.

6 months later all the targets t ( 167$, 257$, 350$ ) shown in the opening pos have been met.

We started from below 100$, i hope you enjoyed the trip ;)
Stopped at black resistance, unsurprisingly.
Now at support.

Price needs to find a reaction ( possibly tonight, e.g. a Morning Star ).

Otherwise a deeper ABC correction is likely.
dear Fab,

what is your opinion about this circumstance?

john_galassi john_galassi
@john_galassi, btw I was just assuming: may be this time it's going to be ETH to pull BTC up ..
Short term picture is quite mixed.
As expected 150$ area is resistance.

There's a bull flag which may hint a cup&handle, yet price was rejected twice ( see yellow balloons ) and -it seems- a rising wedge is forming and encompassing the flag.

Nothing to worry so far, but it's definetely better to place a Take profit / Stop Loss accordingly, just in case that flag fails.

Volume is low an manipulation is feasible.
dear Fab,
under which circumstances could such a powerful (and typical I guess) breakout be denied?

in quali casi una candela verde così decisa dopo un falling wedge potrebbe essere negata e non arrivare nemmeno alla neckline?
ft-73 john_galassi

any pattern breakout needs volume as confirmation.
We can see the pattern on the chart, yet we *cannot* forecast the volume of a breaout.

Hence we should always use caution.

No peak in volume on breakout usually means failing pattern.
That's the rule of thumb.
ft-73 john_galassi
@john_galassi, that said, this leg up shows decent volume.
It's not up to Bitcoin not to interfere ...
@ft-73, "it's NOW up to Bitcoin not to interfere ..."
@ft-73, thanks Fabrice for your reply
Your reply was correct in fact: it is my question that was slightly out of focus.

What I simply meant was: is that so common, so usual, for an uptrend to be denied after such a firm breakuot?
Come on, how often can that happen, how unlucky should I be: past breakouts usually went on into regular uptrends, why shouldn't it work this time too? Come on .. :) that's a more realistic phrasing of what I really meant :)

Now it seems like the answer could be yes: it isn't necessarily supposed to go on into a wonderful uptrend and the explanation to this could be found as you correctly mentioned in the volumes' profile.

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