f-73

ETH may be a long term opportunity

Long
f-73 Updated   
BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum
Accumulating on dips and / or buying a breakout may be a long term winning strategy.

Just keep in mind that this falling wedge may technically allow a price < 40$, even if that's not much likely.
So don't be too eager. If you wish to accumulate do it by buying small lots.
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Watch out.
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Now it needs a volume spike.

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About to make a move.
Bias is on the bullish side, but watch for 0.382 FIB.
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Mixed picture, but we may have a diamond top.


It's not an *absolutely* reliable pattern, it simply means it is better to tighten TP and SL imho. Better safe than sorry.
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Careful.

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Again, careful.

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Price is much stretched.

ETH should hope in a breakout on volume of BTC or a retrace is likely.
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Being careful pays.
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Bots painting channels.


Awaiting a breakout and some *real* action.
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Still "channeling" ...


Bulls should hope it's an ascending channel and not a rising wedge.
Too soon to say.
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It's clearly a rising wedge and we have a bearish divergence, albeit smail, on TH 4H.


A lot depends on BTC, but ETH itself is mush fragile now.
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And BTC saved ETH's day, basically.
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Finally that rising wedge broke down.


There's a fragile interim support above main support, but now momentum is weak.

Beware, -IF- Bitcoin weakens ETH can turn down sharply from here.
So keep on eye at it as well.
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Update

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Slowly approaching support, key area.

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Break down of support on volume tells the first leg up was done.

The hIgh on Bitfinex was at 167$, which perfectly matches the first resistance level you find on my opening post.


Bulls may try to consolidate / find support onto FIB 0.382 area.
It would be a healthy / normal pullback.

Otherwise an ABC correction is likely and bears will take the lead.
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Crossroad ahead.


A lot of manipulation ongoing on Bitcoin.
So watch out for false signals.
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I've just said it above ... false signals-

Break up, break down, break up, ...
ETH looks drunk today.


The problem are the guys playing with bitcoin.
Use caution, even better stay out.
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ETH is in a bad shape.
It needs to paint a morning star and to recover 112$ ASAP.

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May we have that bounce, pretty please ?


Boring.
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Better late than never, Mr. ETH ...


here is bounce we were waiting for,

At resistance now.
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Technically there's a decent chance to escape that long and boring descending channel, -IF- ETH bulls manage to paint a flag / pennant from here and breakout within about 48H.


We'll see, it's maybe a 40% chance as a lot depends on what -Bitcoin- is about to do.
Yet it's worth mentioning.
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It tried to break-up as per previous minor hypothesis.
Timing was good, but it fell short.

Problem was that red candle on Feb, 11th.


Not much encouraging now, as it may paint a rising wedge.
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Breakout of channel, on volume.

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Resistance was marked at 166,35$.


Price actually peaked at 166,40$.
A decent forecast ;)
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3rd resistance at about 350$ is technically in sight, but it has to be reached soon or momentum will vanish.


Decision time on ETH.
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Retrace to FIB 0.382


Come on ETH, time for some reaction.
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