ETHUSD - 1H Tightening. Break & Test Trendline or Test $100?

Following this Bearish Pattern since Jan. 14th, this second leg/step down, and 4th test of the Descending Trend Line is presently in a tightening 1H Range that could see some developments (it has yet to actually come up and meet it thus far). Will it breakout and head to $100 for a retest, or breakout and go test the trend line (around $107 where the Bulls have bumped a few times already with rejection)?

In this step down, based on my previous post, the support seems to be quite a bit stronger at $100 and $104, just below the drop that ensues after a challenge to the Channel's Descending Trend Line.

Previous Bearish Predictable Pattern:

Good Luck!

Trade active:

Something else to note: Is the path of least resistance to the upside, based on VPVR?
We'll watch for developments.

Trade active:

SMA 100 in Cyan Color
SMA 200 in Dark Blue

The current price has the support of 100, just barely. It hasn't been happening often in this recent channel, and typically hasn't been great at supporting since early December.

The upside has the 200 SMA to contend with, which also coincides with this Descending Trend Line now. While this immediate time frame price action (VPVR) may appear to show the path of least resistance to the upside (no real resistances when it plunged 114 to 101), the 200 SMA may have something different to say about a move to the upside.

Shorts up? Good Luck!

Trade active:

Looks like I got lucky on the pattern, now let's see if the Bulls can hold on to the gains. Major trend line was broken, 200 SMA gained on the 1H (needs to hold).

Scrolling out to the 2H, the 200SMA is up around $113

Comment:

One thing I'd like to keep in mind is the previous attempt to break the Descending Channel Trend Line. While this break seems a bit more convincing, we're going to need to see some volume follow up.

The last attempt, or fake out, drew a landslide of selling. The 200 SMA on the Hourly ($108), for me, would need to sustain. At the moment, the past few hours have looked healthy for the Bulls. Let's see if this trend breaks, or just bends.

Comment:

Price action has returned to the trend line, but have the Bulls put a chink in the armor? Support from Psychological $100 could prove formidable for a rally at point 6. The larger outer descending channel has yet to be challenged.

The perceived recent "failed rally" could prove also prove useful so far as impulse waves go, and psychology. Everyone is calling for it, $100 and below. The overall pattern outlined here is even too convenient and comfortable for the Bears.

Keeping a watchful eye on $100 and $104 as price slides down along the inner channels upper trend line. The Bull could get another shot at this soon.