Get Your Orders Set, The Next Move Will Be A Big One!
Previous analysis/position: No trade zone from $400 - $512. If it breaks $512 then I expect it to rally to $680. Setting a stop entry at $516 would be a high probably long. If it breaks down below $400 then I would expect a move to $275 - $300. Set stop entry to short $394.
Patterns: Triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: Strong R: $500 Weak S: $467 Strong S: $400
Long Short Ratio: 70% Long 30% Short
Funding Rates: 0% shorts 0.01% longs according to datamish
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12:+1.49% 26: +1.77% Posturing for a bullish cross.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -0.84% 128: -14.07% | 50 acting as strong resistance. If that is broken a retest of the 128 seems likely.
FIB’s: 0.236 = $368.90 0.382 = $571.35
Candlestick analysis: Weekly inverted hammer/dragonfly
Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly cloud is flat at $721 where the 0.5 FIB is. A breakout of the triangle would re enter the cloud. The top of it is currently in line with the 0.382 FIB (see above). 4h cloud has been acting as support, as has the 1h.
TD’ Sequential: Green 2 on the weekly. If it breaks $515 before Sunday that would provide an entry. Green 2 closed above a green 1 on the daily. If the 3 breaks $485 on high volume that would seem like a good entry in combination with the triangle break.
Visible Range: Largest volume profile in the last 24 hours is $470 | $466 over the last 5 days and 1 month | $451 over the past 6 months | $300 over the past year with $451 being the runner up. A breakdown of $435 - $451 would be very significant.
Bollinger Bands: Above MA on daily, below on weekly. Daily is getting tight and the volume is coming down, confirming my belief that the next move will be a big one.
Trendline: Hyperwave line has ten points of contact (that I count). If it breaks down with conviction it would be a high probability short.
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $515 DOWN = $439
On Balance Volume: In the same triangle on the daily. Sneaky bearish div' on the weekly.
Chaikin Money Flow: Looks good on the weekly. Testing 0.05 on the daily.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View:
RSI: 50 on the daily. 45 on the weekly. No div’s to speak of.
Stoch: Weekly looks like it should give a buy signal soon. Daily just re crossed at 40.
Conclusion: Have had an order set since the 20th to short the breakdown and I’m ready to do the same if we break to the upside. Stop order is set to buy as $517. If I am at my computer and we break $488 with conviction then I will start entering earlier. I also have an order to short $394. Each order is for 50% of my desired position because I very rarely like entering all at once. I will be watching closely for a breakdown of $439 on high volume and that would cause me to enter earlier. Profit target would be $650 for a long and $300 for a short.
Patterns: Triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: Strong R: $500 Weak S: $467 Strong S: $400
Long Short Ratio: 70% Long 30% Short
Funding Rates: 0% shorts 0.01% longs according to datamish
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12:+1.49% 26: +1.77% Posturing for a bullish cross.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -0.84% 128: -14.07% | 50 acting as strong resistance. If that is broken a retest of the 128 seems likely.
FIB’s: 0.236 = $368.90 0.382 = $571.35
Candlestick analysis: Weekly inverted hammer/dragonfly
Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly cloud is flat at $721 where the 0.5 FIB is. A breakout of the triangle would re enter the cloud. The top of it is currently in line with the 0.382 FIB (see above). 4h cloud has been acting as support, as has the 1h.
TD’ Sequential: Green 2 on the weekly. If it breaks $515 before Sunday that would provide an entry. Green 2 closed above a green 1 on the daily. If the 3 breaks $485 on high volume that would seem like a good entry in combination with the triangle break.
Visible Range: Largest volume profile in the last 24 hours is $470 | $466 over the last 5 days and 1 month | $451 over the past 6 months | $300 over the past year with $451 being the runner up. A breakdown of $435 - $451 would be very significant.
Bollinger Bands: Above MA on daily, below on weekly. Daily is getting tight and the volume is coming down, confirming my belief that the next move will be a big one.
Trendline: Hyperwave line has ten points of contact (that I count). If it breaks down with conviction it would be a high probability short.
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $515 DOWN = $439
On Balance Volume: In the same triangle on the daily. Sneaky bearish div' on the weekly.
Chaikin Money Flow: Looks good on the weekly. Testing 0.05 on the daily.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View:
RSI: 50 on the daily. 45 on the weekly. No div’s to speak of.
Stoch: Weekly looks like it should give a buy signal soon. Daily just re crossed at 40.
Conclusion: Have had an order set since the 20th to short the breakdown and I’m ready to do the same if we break to the upside. Stop order is set to buy as $517. If I am at my computer and we break $488 with conviction then I will start entering earlier. I also have an order to short $394. Each order is for 50% of my desired position because I very rarely like entering all at once. I will be watching closely for a breakdown of $439 on high volume and that would cause me to enter earlier. Profit target would be $650 for a long and $300 for a short.
Trade active:
Have started to build my short with one quarter of my desired position size. ETH formed a smaller triangle (yellow) inside of the larger green triangle. That has been broken down and tested for resistance. Horizontal support at $460 also broke down. In the BTC' Daily Update I went over the reasons why that is looking bearish as well.
Comment:
Just added to the position on this bounce and drew a couple trendlines on the 1 hour chart. Risk:reward felt too good to pass up. I am now 50% entered.
Comment:
Comment:
Bear flag (inside of triangle) has confirmed. However keep an eye out for horizontal support at $400. If that provides a bounce it will be a great shorting opportunity. If that area breaks down then watch out below!
Comment:
Fully positioned after that last bounce.
Comment:
Will be covering 25% of the position if it gets back above $370
Trade closed: target reached:
Closed the last 50% of this position at $305. As usual I used 5X leverage and this position returned +103% in less than two weeks : )
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