ETHUSD: Higher Low New Strength?

Ethereum update: A market that is weak sells off quickly. The bullish inside bar in this market is a sign of a fake out, and not a characteristic of weakness. On top of that, the current structure may be turning into a higher low formation. Bad for shorts.

This is the first sign of improved structure since this market made an attempt in July. It is still too early to make any changes to our strategy at S.C., but it is certainly a welcome sign.

The reason why it is too early to call this a bottom is because Bitcoin needs to improve also. If the higher low fails to follow through, the formation will more likely evolve into another bearish continuation pattern. This is not something that is predictable, it is something that the market must demonstrate.

Predicting and timing a market are not the same. People who claim they are "predicting" are still learning. Anticipating a market is the practice of interpreting available information in a way that identifies some form of advantage. We express this in terms of probability. People who predict imply absolutes and there are none in a highly random environment such as a financial market.

When the environment is clearly UNFAVORABLE, we sit on the sidelines. Being aggressive at the wrong time is much more expensive than being conservative at the wrong time. The herd may criticize us for waiting it out, but our funds will still be available for when the favorable environment returns. Of course the herd will be made up of entirely new critics that will take the place of the current ones.

In summary, the question that we are waiting for the market to answer is: if Bitcoin tests its low, will Ethereum make a new low? So far the higher low or failed low scenario is gaining favor. The fact that price did not collapse as usual can also be interpreted as a new sign of strength.

If this market is going to recover, there will be plenty of opportunities to board this train. Especially if important resistance levels like 300 are taken out in the process. While the market builds the structure that we want to see, we wait rather than react.

Waiting is free and can be practiced indefinitely. Reacting is not, just ask all the bears that jumped into the sell signal.