Thinking of buying ETH right now? Read this before you do!
We have broken this 700-720 moved all the way down to this 640 area and are coming back up to test this resistance zone. This is NOT the time to buy in. We want to wait for MORE CLARITY and DIRECTION.
Our original target for a bounce play was 600. However, it had a serious bounce off of 640 for roughly a 10-15% move. While that would have been a great trade from that midline previous support, it's ok that we missed it. There are ALWAYS other opportunities. Don't let your emotions dictate where you buy in! We are looking for HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES and direction. NOT trying to predict where the market will go every second of every day.
SO, keep in mind that ETH is in favor over BTC right now with ETH/BTC moving up. It bounced WAY earlier than the 600 support. On this next run down, do we base out earlier again at 600, or do we overshoot it because the play was at 640? Here is the thing, I DON'T know if it will or not! But we can manage our RISK in case it does by adjusting our buys and laddering them as follows:
33% buy at 605 ETH
33% buy at 577 ETH
33% buy at 525 ETH (my just in case positions)
I am HOPING the market doesn't do something crazy and push down to 525. The goal here is to keep some of our ETH portfolio that we trade on the sidelines so we can enter in MANUALLY depending on where it bases out. By doing this we are mitigating our risk significantly just IN CASE it pushes down. If ETH pushes all the way up to 750 or even 800 before moving down, we can also adjust our buy UP to 655 to catch a bounce, maybe around 700? I will keep this updated.
Higher risk trade I will not be taking:
Break of this temporary downward trendline and bust of this 750 resistance zone would indicate a move up to 800.
Things to be mindful of:
IF we move all the way up to 800 we will begin to adjust our targets and possibly eye this 700 area for a buy or a break of 800.
Happy Trading,
-Sherem
Our original target for a bounce play was 600. However, it had a serious bounce off of 640 for roughly a 10-15% move. While that would have been a great trade from that midline previous support, it's ok that we missed it. There are ALWAYS other opportunities. Don't let your emotions dictate where you buy in! We are looking for HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES and direction. NOT trying to predict where the market will go every second of every day.
SO, keep in mind that ETH is in favor over BTC right now with ETH/BTC moving up. It bounced WAY earlier than the 600 support. On this next run down, do we base out earlier again at 600, or do we overshoot it because the play was at 640? Here is the thing, I DON'T know if it will or not! But we can manage our RISK in case it does by adjusting our buys and laddering them as follows:
33% buy at 605 ETH
33% buy at 577 ETH
33% buy at 525 ETH (my just in case positions)
I am HOPING the market doesn't do something crazy and push down to 525. The goal here is to keep some of our ETH portfolio that we trade on the sidelines so we can enter in MANUALLY depending on where it bases out. By doing this we are mitigating our risk significantly just IN CASE it pushes down. If ETH pushes all the way up to 750 or even 800 before moving down, we can also adjust our buy UP to 655 to catch a bounce, maybe around 700? I will keep this updated.
Higher risk trade I will not be taking:
Break of this temporary downward trendline and bust of this 750 resistance zone would indicate a move up to 800.
Things to be mindful of:
IF we move all the way up to 800 we will begin to adjust our targets and possibly eye this 700 area for a buy or a break of 800.
Happy Trading,
-Sherem
Comment:
Came down and cut through this trendline and we are finding support at this 700 level, but not much of it, trying to cut through it as I write this. I posted roughly what I think it will do if it continues breaking down. timing might be quicker or slower for that matter. we'll see
Comment:
also note MACD has crossed over on this 1 hour time frame
Comment:
Ether is really tricky to get a grasp on right now. While BTC is still waiting to break this trendline, it looks like ETHER has already, doesn't it? In a whip saw market I prefer to see a confirmation of a break and a retest. We'll need to wait to see how this forms up and be mindful to look for breaks.
Comment:
If we really zoom in and change our focus from swing trading, to an intraday time frame, this is what we want to keep in mind.
This is higher risk. I will be playing it, as it does have momentum but with only a small piece of the portfolio. buy stop above these highs. if it comes down, I will wait for it to base out a little at 715
This is higher risk. I will be playing it, as it does have momentum but with only a small piece of the portfolio. buy stop above these highs. if it comes down, I will wait for it to base out a little at 715
Trade active:
buy stop hit, trade active at 741, targeting 775 for a quick flip, maybe higher
Comment:
this trade is more cut and dry, stop loss will be below this 730 area. good risk to reward. risking $10-15 for a $30+ move to the upside
Comment:
Well, damn. Knew it was higher risk and went in small(like 5% of portfolio) in the spirit of not fomoing. I didn't set a stop as I was going to exit manually on this trade... I try to keep this as updated as I can during the day between work and what not. I went in really small as I notated above, so I am not worried about taking a small loss. We'll see if this 715-720 area holds with this ascending trendline.
Comment:
Chart update, we are looking better now, critical we hold this 715 area.
Comment:
I can't post a new chart for a couple days. Be mindful that we want to look for a bounce in eth around when btc hits 7k. I already laid out how I am laddering it, but I am going to move it down. First ladder will be around 580 most likely with how they are moving together. We will need to see. I gotta do a more thorough analysis which I can't do till Saturday. Happy trading
Comment:
New chart:
