Opinion:
Ethereum's value has been moved by a number of factors; the main of which, has driven high expectation as a decoy from Ethereum's current price action. Unfortunately, the decoy "Proof of Stake" or "Merge" or "Docking", is merely a decoy. Here is a list of factors that have led me to this opinion:
1. U.S Infrastructure bill. Passed in November 2021; it contained a number of budgetary measures with the aim of taxing crypto-currencies. A long standing debate between Washington lobbyists and Senators ensued, the battle between Lummin's and Portman's amendments. At last amidst the fog of the money printer that was the main goal of the Infrastructure Bill. Neither amendments passed and the bill remained in it's original state. The bill is due to come into effect in January 2023. Once implemented; exchanges, brokers, node runners; virtually all within the chain of custody of a crypto transaction will be forced to file 1099 forms with the IRS . Whilst this is technically impossible in PoW networks, it is possible within a PoS system.
Despite the PoS trinket, proposed by the Ethereum foundation since 2017; PoS has now become a legal liability, affecting the adoption of Ethereum . The choice for PoS would de facto threaten the legality of the ETH chain of custody via IRS red tape requirements.
(Unfortunately, this post was moderated due to the inclusion of CoinCenter's and Jerry Brito's twitter handles. Therefore, I will not be able to post references, but feel free to hit my DM's for the full list.)
2. Taking into account the last 9 weeks of negative price action; kickstarted by the FED tightening and compounded upon by disasters such as the Luna Foundation. It has become obvious that proof of stake algorithms have a higher sensitivity to Bitcoin's downward pressures. As bitcoin lost over 60% of it's value since all-time-high PoS tokens are struggling to maintain 10%-20% of their previous value. This too makes it an inopportune moment for ETH to announce a full entry into the PoS sphere. "One does not simply, create money out of nothing." (Without, it being a period of QE that is.)
3. Macros
"There are 3 leading macro indicators that are worth keeping an eye on, for a possible macro cross-market reversal:
1. CPI (Once the numbers plateau the Federal reserve will have data to back pro-market decisions once more.)
2. Federal Reserve Hike probability tool ( CME probability tool for future hikes. Target is dynamic.)
3. QT due dates (September 2022 QT will reach its peak level of 95bn/m)
I am of the opinion that our nearest macro reversal and bottom calling possibility, will hoover around September 2022. It will either be a temporary or long-term. This is contingent on the CPI plateauing by then and entering stabilization territory as-well as maintaining the current QT schedule."
I have quoted this part from my previous BTC analysis. As laid out, spot buying money is unlikely to return to markets for as long as the FED continues driving uncertainty within global markets. The nearest possibility for a pivot is September 2022.
Conclusion:
With all afore mentioned in mind, I believe ETH fair price is anywhere from 170$ to 560$. Of course, I could be wrong and for this reason I propose a DCA plan within this idea. However; in terms of macro's, fundamental's and taking into account that ETH proof of stake is no technical challenge, but a trinket that has been dangling in the face of potential investors since 2017. It is in my view, that it has become unrealistic to expect a significant retrace to its previous valuation at least in the short term.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
Ethereum's value has been moved by a number of factors; the main of which, has driven high expectation as a decoy from Ethereum's current price action. Unfortunately, the decoy "Proof of Stake" or "Merge" or "Docking", is merely a decoy. Here is a list of factors that have led me to this opinion:
1. U.S Infrastructure bill. Passed in November 2021; it contained a number of budgetary measures with the aim of taxing crypto-currencies. A long standing debate between Washington lobbyists and Senators ensued, the battle between Lummin's and Portman's amendments. At last amidst the fog of the money printer that was the main goal of the Infrastructure Bill. Neither amendments passed and the bill remained in it's original state. The bill is due to come into effect in January 2023. Once implemented; exchanges, brokers, node runners; virtually all within the chain of custody of a crypto transaction will be forced to file 1099 forms with the IRS . Whilst this is technically impossible in PoW networks, it is possible within a PoS system.
Despite the PoS trinket, proposed by the Ethereum foundation since 2017; PoS has now become a legal liability, affecting the adoption of Ethereum . The choice for PoS would de facto threaten the legality of the ETH chain of custody via IRS red tape requirements.
(Unfortunately, this post was moderated due to the inclusion of CoinCenter's and Jerry Brito's twitter handles. Therefore, I will not be able to post references, but feel free to hit my DM's for the full list.)
2. Taking into account the last 9 weeks of negative price action; kickstarted by the FED tightening and compounded upon by disasters such as the Luna Foundation. It has become obvious that proof of stake algorithms have a higher sensitivity to Bitcoin's downward pressures. As bitcoin lost over 60% of it's value since all-time-high PoS tokens are struggling to maintain 10%-20% of their previous value. This too makes it an inopportune moment for ETH to announce a full entry into the PoS sphere. "One does not simply, create money out of nothing." (Without, it being a period of QE that is.)
3. Macros
"There are 3 leading macro indicators that are worth keeping an eye on, for a possible macro cross-market reversal:
1. CPI (Once the numbers plateau the Federal reserve will have data to back pro-market decisions once more.)
2. Federal Reserve Hike probability tool ( CME probability tool for future hikes. Target is dynamic.)
3. QT due dates (September 2022 QT will reach its peak level of 95bn/m)
I am of the opinion that our nearest macro reversal and bottom calling possibility, will hoover around September 2022. It will either be a temporary or long-term. This is contingent on the CPI plateauing by then and entering stabilization territory as-well as maintaining the current QT schedule."
I have quoted this part from my previous BTC analysis. As laid out, spot buying money is unlikely to return to markets for as long as the FED continues driving uncertainty within global markets. The nearest possibility for a pivot is September 2022.
Conclusion:
With all afore mentioned in mind, I believe ETH fair price is anywhere from 170$ to 560$. Of course, I could be wrong and for this reason I propose a DCA plan within this idea. However; in terms of macro's, fundamental's and taking into account that ETH proof of stake is no technical challenge, but a trinket that has been dangling in the face of potential investors since 2017. It is in my view, that it has become unrealistic to expect a significant retrace to its previous valuation at least in the short term.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.