$ETH Up 20% as Odds of Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Approval High

Ether (ETH) has surged 20% to over $3,829 as favorable regulatory developments increase the likelihood of ETF approval. CoinDesk 20, tracking the largest digital assets, rose nearly 8% amid positive regulatory progress on Ether ETFs. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made abrupt progress in the approval of a Ether ETF by asking exchanges to update 19b-4 filings for ether ETFs. This suggests potential progress toward spot Ether ETF approvals.

As a result of this significant development, the ether implied volatility curve flattened as 25-delta risk reversals hit YTD highs above 18%, and traders heavily bought $4000 calls for 24 May 2024 and 31 May, according to Presto Research analysts. A Polymarket contract asking if an ether ETF would be approved by May 31 jumped from 10 cents to 55 cents, representing a 55% chance that approval will take place by May 31. Another Polymarket contract asking if the ETF will be approved by June 30 is currently trading at 68%.

A decision on VanEck's proposed ether ETF is due on May 23, followed by Ark's on May 24. Fidelity has filed an amended S-1 application with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF). The asset management giant has reportedly filed an updated S-1 application, stating that the ETF’s underlying Ether ( ETH $3,755) tokens will not be staked. S-1 filings are the SEC’s required registration form for launching publicly traded securities products in the United States.

The next SEC deadline is May 23 for VanEck’s Ether ETF proposal. While senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has increased the odds of approval to 75% from 25%, this only applies to the 19b-4 form. Ether ETF issuers will also need to get their S-1 filings approved, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

Staked Ether could be classified as a security despite ETH ETF approval. The SEC has previously sought to classify Ether as a security, and Ethereum’s upgrade to proof-of-stake (PoS) may have given the regulator another reason. However, the securities watchdog may still classify staked Ether as a security, according to Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy Research.

Technical Outlook
Ethereum ( ETH ) is up 4% as of the time of writing at $3,809 per coin. With a Bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 72.93 Ethereum ( ETH ) is set for a mega rally, the daily price chart depicts a "Bullish Flag Pattern" accentuating the thesis.

Furthermore, the Long Bullish "Harami" candlestick on the daily price chart likewise validates the bullish thesis.