#ETH/USDT - Long - Potential 64.52%
If we were looking solely at technicals and on a short time horizon here I'd be going short. We have a huge bear flag spanning close to 10 months and price has broken down on the 20 and 50 daily moving averages.
On top of that interest in ETH is flat, the XRP case exposed some underhand favouritism (the Hinman emails) and spot BTC ETF's seem to demonstrate that institutional demand is shaping up to be Saylor style BTC maximilism.
XRP is the good guy, BTC is an institutional asset and ETH is losing ground with poor technicals.
BUT I'm still going long.
Firstly I'm doing this because I feel we are in the nascent stages of a bull run. This morning I looked at a trade I published on here in THETA from August 2020. I made about 7% profit, if I'd held the position for a year I'd have made 3000%. As we approach the BTC halving and the spot ETF approval I think we'll see a dramatic increase in total market cap and just because ETH looks uncool now its unlikely to miss out on a major market cap pump.
Secondly and more specifically ETH is about to address its biggest problem - the ridiculous gas fees. Everybody has an ETH gas fee story (my favourite was the WhaleAlert notification in May of a trader dropping 64 ETH or $118,000 on fees for a single transaction). Now the shift to proof-of-stake did help to address this in part but the trader who payed $118k won't be appeased by the fact that such fees are now rare. The issue is in processing of transactions, in May when that trader got burnt by fees the market was in meme coin mania with PEPE and FLOKI causing network activity to spike.
This finally may be really addressed with the q4 (maybe later as delays are expected) launch of EIP-4844 Proto-Danksharding. So 'Proto' and 'Dank' are taken from the devs names and 'sharding' is basically how this works - transaction data is broken down into smaller more digestible chunks. This should take the ETH transactions per second from its original 15tps through to an eventual (predicted) 100,000tps.
You can see the long signal that our strategy threw out in July '22. I didn't take that position as LUNA, 3Fires, Celsius had destabilised the market throwing off a lot of signals. In hindsight it doesnt look terrible (especially if DCA'd) but I'm probably glad I wasn't holding additional ETH over the past year.
Current price moves may give us a second opportunity closer to the end of the tunnel (hopefully). I'm planning on triggering my initial buy order at the 200MA (I'm using the daily on this chart). If we break down, as the technicals are indicating I'll DCA and improve the 1:1 RR on this set up using the highlighted fib levels as my buys with a Stop Loss just under 0.786. Given the sentiment on Thursdays CPI data due to Oil prices, then I'm expecting a breakdown and DCA for this position.
I have my Take Profit at the -0.272 Fib which is where our July target landed with the option to aim for -0.618 if the market does catch fire.
Due to the possible delays in in the EIP launch I'm happy holding this position into 2024.
Let me know what you think below!
On top of that interest in ETH is flat, the XRP case exposed some underhand favouritism (the Hinman emails) and spot BTC ETF's seem to demonstrate that institutional demand is shaping up to be Saylor style BTC maximilism.
XRP is the good guy, BTC is an institutional asset and ETH is losing ground with poor technicals.
BUT I'm still going long.
Firstly I'm doing this because I feel we are in the nascent stages of a bull run. This morning I looked at a trade I published on here in THETA from August 2020. I made about 7% profit, if I'd held the position for a year I'd have made 3000%. As we approach the BTC halving and the spot ETF approval I think we'll see a dramatic increase in total market cap and just because ETH looks uncool now its unlikely to miss out on a major market cap pump.
Secondly and more specifically ETH is about to address its biggest problem - the ridiculous gas fees. Everybody has an ETH gas fee story (my favourite was the WhaleAlert notification in May of a trader dropping 64 ETH or $118,000 on fees for a single transaction). Now the shift to proof-of-stake did help to address this in part but the trader who payed $118k won't be appeased by the fact that such fees are now rare. The issue is in processing of transactions, in May when that trader got burnt by fees the market was in meme coin mania with PEPE and FLOKI causing network activity to spike.
This finally may be really addressed with the q4 (maybe later as delays are expected) launch of EIP-4844 Proto-Danksharding. So 'Proto' and 'Dank' are taken from the devs names and 'sharding' is basically how this works - transaction data is broken down into smaller more digestible chunks. This should take the ETH transactions per second from its original 15tps through to an eventual (predicted) 100,000tps.
You can see the long signal that our strategy threw out in July '22. I didn't take that position as LUNA, 3Fires, Celsius had destabilised the market throwing off a lot of signals. In hindsight it doesnt look terrible (especially if DCA'd) but I'm probably glad I wasn't holding additional ETH over the past year.
Current price moves may give us a second opportunity closer to the end of the tunnel (hopefully). I'm planning on triggering my initial buy order at the 200MA (I'm using the daily on this chart). If we break down, as the technicals are indicating I'll DCA and improve the 1:1 RR on this set up using the highlighted fib levels as my buys with a Stop Loss just under 0.786. Given the sentiment on Thursdays CPI data due to Oil prices, then I'm expecting a breakdown and DCA for this position.
I have my Take Profit at the -0.272 Fib which is where our July target landed with the option to aim for -0.618 if the market does catch fire.
Due to the possible delays in in the EIP launch I'm happy holding this position into 2024.
Let me know what you think below!
Comment:
So PayPal's stable coin (PYUSD) is being built on ETH? Thats going to massively pump the ETH price. I'm doubling my allocation to this position. Bloomberg have the PayPal active users at 435m, if even a tiny % of them use PYUSD the impact on ETH activity will be enormous.
Comment:
Vitiate Buterin has just moved 600 ETH to coinbase spreading fears of a crash. I'm at my first DCA level faster than expected following the Evergrande crash with this news potentialy wrecking this whole set up.
My plan is to not DCA as intended at the 0.5 level instead using that allocation at the 0.618 level. If this is triggered then I might use my 0.618 allocation at the 0.786 leaving the position open with a now massively reduced average buy price.
My plan is to not DCA as intended at the 0.5 level instead using that allocation at the 0.618 level. If this is triggered then I might use my 0.618 allocation at the 0.786 leaving the position open with a now massively reduced average buy price.
Comment:
BlackRock ETF applications should help push this to full TP.
Comment:
106,000 ETH burned to ensure ETH deflationary. Might push that last TP to 2918.
Comment:
I'm taking 50% profit here and setting a new TP at 2916 (fib 618).