Scenario 1# (Yellow): This scenario is the most likely to happen depending on the state of the market. Sideways moves till it collapse nearby the downtrend to the green line level.
Scenario 2# (Blue): Not that much. weak chances to success. An earlier visit to the downtrend by staying for maybe 1 day and a half or less, exactly the same blue arrow degree. Then directly to the green line level.
When price reaches the next time period go to M15 / M5 chart to identify which scenario will happen.
The green line is a strong , strong enough to smack the price to the downtrend with a lovely stable uptrend.