Euro 50 - danger zone

apeliquidation Updated   
OANDA:EU50EUR   Europe 50
Expecting a resolve of the movement in the blue triangle. Either bear or bull depends on where it breaks; arrows depict trade entry depending on your orientation.

Leaning bearish, but not really tradable until the break. TA shows a triangle which usually breaks to either up or down and retest the break. Break retest is usually tradable with higher certainty. I also depict a failed Elliot Wave 5 which usually resolves in ABC retracement which may be agressive especially the C part.

Bearish FA is uncertainty of the EU sector. Draghi experiment stimulated growth by promoting cheap crediting which is bearish in my eyes since people in europe are not saving and are overspending. Housing market is quite expensive and most of it is on credit cause it is under 2% but people dont have a lot of free capital and if you have in more and more coutries you have to pay to have the money (currently only bigger clients and only on cash holdings). Population forgot what happened recently and dont think it was too bad. EURIBOR is negative as are interest rates in more and more of the banks. Brexit is looming and Boris could hard brexit which although could be a short term market reaction by itself could cause a domino effect caused by strong USD and currently weak EUR and GBP. Draghi out Lagarde in, but Draghi will probably still have a word in the back.
Press play. Manifested as expected and we even got a blowoff top. This looks like a bottom but whole market looks bearish. Dow looks like it is going to 14800 which means that this one goes down too.


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