Lil brother going for a hiking. Big bro's not going yet.
Fundamentals:
EURO strong:
Pandemic situation going better and better. Cases plateauing in Germany, vaccine roll out accelerating and we are getting out of the recession with a very positive outlook for the end of this year. (Q3-Q4) The business sector is booming ahead of the summer and there is a wave of optimism saying that the worst pandemic ever is behind us now. Businesses are expecting expansion at their highest levels for the last 21 years. That said, with the firms struggling to meet the high demand, prices will go up. Inflation is set to go up too and this is only the beginning.
AUD weak/neutral:
In Australia, economic data are mix but more weak than neutral for the moment being. Infection spreading is in control but the vaccine roll out is super slow, so the risk is still there. There is still a lock down in Sydney but it doesn't seem to affect to financial market for the moment. Note that less than 5% of the population is vaccinated, so if there is a renewed covid19 hatching, it could be chaos. Let's hope it doesn't get there. The biggest part of my fundamental analysis is the tensions between China and Australia. China wants to cut their iron ore importations from Australia, which is basically 36% of Australia's exports. China also imposed more than 200% tariffs on Australia's wine.
Market sentiment:
1,56200 is the price where the institutions initiated the latest higher high. If they are still fundamentally bullish, they may be interested to buy again at this price because it is a good price for them. Also, retail traders must become bearish as the price action is red and ad the H4 range as been broken to the downside. Support being broken=Retail becoming sellers=sellers available for big boy's liquidity to buy. Finally, 1,56200 is a good profit taking price for the sellers that got in at 1,58500. Sellers taking profit = new buyers in the market.
EURO strong:
Pandemic situation going better and better. Cases plateauing in Germany, vaccine roll out accelerating and we are getting out of the recession with a very positive outlook for the end of this year. (Q3-Q4) The business sector is booming ahead of the summer and there is a wave of optimism saying that the worst pandemic ever is behind us now. Businesses are expecting expansion at their highest levels for the last 21 years. That said, with the firms struggling to meet the high demand, prices will go up. Inflation is set to go up too and this is only the beginning.
AUD weak/neutral:
In Australia, economic data are mix but more weak than neutral for the moment being. Infection spreading is in control but the vaccine roll out is super slow, so the risk is still there. There is still a lock down in Sydney but it doesn't seem to affect to financial market for the moment. Note that less than 5% of the population is vaccinated, so if there is a renewed covid19 hatching, it could be chaos. Let's hope it doesn't get there. The biggest part of my fundamental analysis is the tensions between China and Australia. China wants to cut their iron ore importations from Australia, which is basically 36% of Australia's exports. China also imposed more than 200% tariffs on Australia's wine.
Market sentiment:
1,56200 is the price where the institutions initiated the latest higher high. If they are still fundamentally bullish, they may be interested to buy again at this price because it is a good price for them. Also, retail traders must become bearish as the price action is red and ad the H4 range as been broken to the downside. Support being broken=Retail becoming sellers=sellers available for big boy's liquidity to buy. Finally, 1,56200 is a good profit taking price for the sellers that got in at 1,58500. Sellers taking profit = new buyers in the market.
Order cancelled:
Direction and timing were good, but entry price wasn't. Buy limit (purple circle) was not triggered and this setup is now cancelled for the moment.