IvanLabrie
Long

EURGBP: Buy above the high

FX:EURGBP   Euro Fx/British Pound
Simple, analysis on chart, confluence of contrarian but very powerful bullish signals.

#1: Ending diagonal triangle
#2: rgmov divergence
#3: Quarterly ROC up
#4: Absolutely extreme move down based on the Bollinger bands .
#5: Time at mode daily downtrend expiration.
#6: CCI oversold but divergent vs previous peaks.

Good Luck,

Ivan.
Comment: Target almost hit.
Agree, i think this is also the last decline. I will wat for the price to move before opening a position
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GaliX FullTimeTrader
guessing for bottoms or tops is dangerous when making multi year highs/lows...
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Have you seen the last update I posted?
Look at the move, it ends with a similar terminal wedge pattern as well, and shows clear momentum signature in MACD.
Too many signals aligning to not take action.
The entry is above the high, if we were to move under the lowest low the reversal would get invalidated.
Risking 1-2% on this is a good idea in my opinion.
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Forgot to add: Props to Tim West, he shared this CCI strategy in his Key Hidden Levels chatroom the other day.

One more thing:

snapshot
+1 Reply
Closer look:

snapshot
+1 Reply
Smart move to buy above a previous bar high. This way you are not "PICKING BOTTOMS" but waiting for the market to prove it is bottoming. Good strategy.
+4 Reply
Indeed.
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glad we have the same view.
EURGBP - could have been bottomed (or bottoming).
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moorekapital colinsheen
Wao!

I just admire the different ways people count Elliot waves. It's just fascinating to see different counts for the same chart;)
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IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
Heh, well, that's why I don't base my trading decisions on the counts. Too subjective.
This one's compelling though, since I see the Pound as completely overextended, relative strength wise, this and other things support the possibility of this ending diagonal wedge count to be correct.
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colinsheen PRO moorekapital
what's good about EW is that it won't tell you what's going to happen next, it tells you what's not going to happen next instead. It's always good to have at least 1 (or more) alternative count on each chart, and have the higher probability one as the primary count.
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FullTimeTrader moorekapital
I agree, but don forget that no matter what trading system we use (technical analysis, harmonics, etc) we are always talkint about probabilities. Elliott Waves is not the holy grial, its just another usefull tool that can give us usefull information under certain market conditions. We see different counts for the same chart the same way we see different technical analysis for the same chart.
+1 Reply
Hello, you now something about correlation between EURGBP and gold? They are very similar now, im considering the possibility of a false break like gold (expanded flat). The reversal is expected soon.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO FullTimeTrader
I think eur, gold and usd will outperform the pound, that's why you see the correlation.

Try ratios, pound/gold:

snapshot


euro/gold:

snapshot


More pending upside in euro/gold.
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I like this, euro will fight back soon.
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Just looking at the Fib Sequence on EG on Daily I can see a further decline to its Extension 1.618 zone @ 0.63603 and looking back from july, 2013 it has been pretty much following that trend. Just FYI
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colinsheen PRO simpleforextrader
Yeah possible. In this case, this will be a leading diagonal (for the final 5th) instead of an ending diagonal. Either way, as long as it's a diagonal, a bounce is very close.
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IvanLabrie PRO colinsheen
Why leading?
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colinsheen PRO IvanLabrie
of course less likely, but still cannot completely rule out the chance that this is in fact wave (i) of the final large 5th wave down, so a leading. either case, a bounce is imminent.
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IvanLabrie PRO colinsheen
Would be a strange ocurrence, but yes, it would imply a very sharp 0.786 retracement if it is, making this idea profitable as well.
Time for completion should be similar to the one I projected in the chart above with fib time and the arrow.
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Entered long because the price action looked considerably clean in EW terms.
Stop under the low.
Also in a spread trade, long eurusd, short gbpusd, no stop loss and position size adjusted via ADR.
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Closed my long, 0.3% profit here. Waiting for a more conservative confirmed entry.
+1 Reply
Well, it seems like the diagonal wasn't complete.
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In waiting mode, might be a winner on the long side but I'll wait for confirmation. This might have been the whole thing.
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