This currency pair isn’t a story about a strong currency vs a weak one. It more of, which one is the stronger currency of two weak ones. Having said this, I believe that the EUR currency value as reflected by current price in EURUSD is just a repricing or revaluation of the dollar, than improving economic standings in the EU zone. Because of this belief of mine I think the EURUSD has been in a slow grind lower and has tended to move on political news from the USA regarding dollar valuations, and to a lesser degree on economic swings both more negative or more positive.
Where as the GBP has moved mostly on Brexit news or the lack of any kind of economic certainty as to how Brexit will play out in the end. Politically speaking the new PM is committed to a Hell or high water approach to seeing the Brexit through. So currently we see both sides negotiating or not, from the point of “it’s my way or the highway!” And the currency markets don’t like it—the pound has continued it slid past the 1.2100 level.
With no real urgency during the summer trading period, and the Brexit deadline in October, I can see GBP sliding farther towards the big figure of 1.20 and then more still towards the 1.19 and maybe... ?
So looking at the EURGBP pair it seems to be in a ascending wedge indicates by red trend lines. Price has respected these trend lines on it recent ascending path. With the pop up in price last week 8-5-9-19 and again in this weeks Sunday evening open of the new trading week, price moved up close to my top trend line and sold off, only to bounce in early NY trade off the bottom trend line. I still favor trading the pair off these trend lines. With these lines moving closer together daily I am also looking for a breakout in either direction to be more of an explosive short term play should this happen. To a higher degree, and probability, I see this pair moving up this week to test the top again around the 0.9350 zone.
While I was able to pick up some 70 pips on the Sunday night short trade, my long orders just missed getting filled this morning when I woke up and took a look at the overnight price action. On any retest of the lower trend line 0.9275 ish area ( approximately where the trend line is at time of this post ) I would like to hunt for Long’s targeting 0.9350 ish area. At that time depending on price action I will decide weather it is once again a good counter trend short play.
All the best in your trades.
Where as the GBP has moved mostly on Brexit news or the lack of any kind of economic certainty as to how Brexit will play out in the end. Politically speaking the new PM is committed to a Hell or high water approach to seeing the Brexit through. So currently we see both sides negotiating or not, from the point of “it’s my way or the highway!” And the currency markets don’t like it—the pound has continued it slid past the 1.2100 level.
With no real urgency during the summer trading period, and the Brexit deadline in October, I can see GBP sliding farther towards the big figure of 1.20 and then more still towards the 1.19 and maybe... ?
So looking at the EURGBP pair it seems to be in a ascending wedge indicates by red trend lines. Price has respected these trend lines on it recent ascending path. With the pop up in price last week 8-5-9-19 and again in this weeks Sunday evening open of the new trading week, price moved up close to my top trend line and sold off, only to bounce in early NY trade off the bottom trend line. I still favor trading the pair off these trend lines. With these lines moving closer together daily I am also looking for a breakout in either direction to be more of an explosive short term play should this happen. To a higher degree, and probability, I see this pair moving up this week to test the top again around the 0.9350 zone.
While I was able to pick up some 70 pips on the Sunday night short trade, my long orders just missed getting filled this morning when I woke up and took a look at the overnight price action. On any retest of the lower trend line 0.9275 ish area ( approximately where the trend line is at time of this post ) I would like to hunt for Long’s targeting 0.9350 ish area. At that time depending on price action I will decide weather it is once again a good counter trend short play.
All the best in your trades.
Comment:
Still a bit new to the platform but hope this is how I post an updated. On the 1 hour chart EURGBP trade idea. In the last hour price pushed into my top portion of my buy zone. Took a 1/10 size position at 0.9276 with still more orders into the bottom red trend line zone. We’ll see if filled or not?
Trade closed: stop reached:
As it is so often, the markets are never wrong. A vicious and sudden market move stopped us out on both positions. Even though I still believe the underlying theory of higher prices is in tact still.
Position one was stopped out -15 pips
Position two was also stopped -15
Total loss -30
Off to the next trade.
Position one was stopped out -15 pips
Position two was also stopped -15
Total loss -30
Off to the next trade.