Kumowizard

EURHUF - What policy makers don't want to see

FX_IDC:EURHUF   EURO / FORINT
39 0 0
That is a stronger HUF! They really do not want to see EURHUF             a lot lower. In a small and open economy like Hungary, FX rate has a lot of relevance. And you can be sure about that Hungarian policy makers will do all they can to prevent further HUF             stregthenning. Anyway, they do not even hide their intention, for example NBH representatives clearly point that in interviews, they want weaker HUF             and they cut rates until "needed".
You could say it was/is problematic in Czech Republic too, but Hungary is a different story. In Hungary it is not so difficult to weaken a bit the ccy if this is the policy makers' need. They will have a lot of other tools left even if they can not cut the base rate further. Please allow me not to give any ideas here :-) I don't say EURHUF             will blow up, but in the global ccy war the Hungarian decision makers I think would like to see a 2-3 % avg annual depreciation.

Let's have a look at the technicals.

Weekly:
- A long term uptrend line was broken. The Ichimoku setup is bearish , but so far the previous horizontal key level ard             297 was not yet cleared. That's needed for a bearish continuation, and for a confirmed bearish Kumo breakout.
- Heikin Ashi candle last week already showed slowing bearish momentum. This week it looks like even a pull back is possible. haDelta/SMA3 further up.
- I think there is chance to retest the weekly Kumo and previous trendline ard             306+lvl. 306-310,5 zone however is becoming a strong bearish support.

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is slowly losing its very bearish bias, but still has to be considered as bearish . This can change to neutral if Price breaks back above Kijun Sen and second possible trendline (301+)
- Despite Heikin Ashi candles were designed to filter as much mkt noise as possible, you can see that in case of EURHUF             even this filtering is hard to achieve. Yes, this is a noisy ccy of a noisy country, and not easy to trade. But when it moves, it can move a lot and quickly. For now the Heikin Ashi signal is slightly bullish biased, but for more bullish move haDelta/SMA3 should come back above zero line and Price needs to close above 301-301,50.
- Upper supp/res levels: 301,50 / 304 / 306
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