You could say it was/is problematic in Czech Republic too, but Hungary is a different story. In Hungary it is not so difficult to weaken a bit the ccy if this is the policy makers' need. They will have a lot of other tools left even if they can not cut the base rate further. Please allow me not to give any ideas here :-) I don't say EURHUF will blow up, but in the global ccy war the Hungarian decision makers I think would like to see a 2-3 % avg annual depreciation.
Let's have a look at the technicals.
- A long term uptrend line was broken. The setup is , but so far the previous horizontal key level ard 297 was not yet cleared. That's needed for a continuation, and for a confirmed Kumo breakout.
- Heikin Ashi candle last week already showed slowing momentum. This week it looks like even a pull back is possible. haDelta/SMA3 further up.
- I think there is chance to retest the weekly Kumo and previous ard 306+lvl. 306-310,5 zone however is becoming a strong support.
- setup is slowly losing its very bias, but still has to be considered as . This can change to neutral if Price breaks back above Kijun Sen and second possible (301+)
- Despite Heikin Ashi candles were designed to filter as much mkt noise as possible, you can see that in case of EURHUF even this filtering is hard to achieve. Yes, this is a noisy ccy of a noisy country, and not easy to trade. But when it moves, it can move a lot and quickly. For now the Heikin Ashi signal is slightly biased, but for more move haDelta/SMA3 should come back above zero line and Price needs to close above 301-301,50.
- Upper supp/res levels: 301,50 / 304 / 306