Skill4fun

EUR/HUF - inverse Head&Shoulders - Long - 1-3w

Long
Skill4fun Updated   
FOREXCOM:EURHUF   Euro / Hungarian Forint
A potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the chart (not the prettiest, but whatever) and on the RSI as a possible sign of a reversal.
Let's see if price can rise above the neckline around 415 HUF , if so:
Buy in: above ~415 HUF
TP: 433 HUF
Time interval ~1-3weeks


Fundamental background:

The European Commission has concluded that Budapest has not sufficiently fulfilled its reform promises in the fight against corruption, and will recommend to member states to freeze €7.5 billion from three cohesion programs at its meeting next Wednesday, according to the conservative daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. ( 23.11.2022-13:14)

If the Council adopts the Commission's proposals, it would mean 65 % of the funds for three Hungarian operational programs would be withdrawn from Hungary. This would mean blocking €7.5 billion, or around 3,000 billion HUF , which is around the third of the cohesion funding for the budget period up to 2027.

HUF weakened against the euro on the news.

source: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausl...
Trade active:
So, the price rose above the neckline.
If it remains like this, then in my opinion the inverse head and shoulders can be considered a validated a bullish sign.

Comment:
Inflation is again at a record high in Hungary: 22.5 percent in November.

source: https://www.portfolio.hu/deviza/20221208...

Portfolio writes that after it turned out that the rate of inflation was higher than expected, the forint was unable to recover, and in fact, a new wave of weakening began.

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