Trying EURJPY short here.
The HMA's are suggesting we're entering a down period again.
The EUR narrative has lost a lot of steam with weaker EUR data and falling inflation. We have Germany HICP today which is also likely to drop further based on how inflation numbers have been coming out from Europe so far this week. This should mean a continued fall in EUR yields and so likely a weaker EUR against the JPY. The JPY narrative seems a little better as well with some slight verbal intervention over the past couple days and the BoJ governor last night sounding a little more hawkish than usual.
rate differentials are pointing lower which should suggest lower for the pair.
sentiment and positioning are pretty high for the pair which suggests upside might be a little more difficult for now.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
The HMA's are suggesting we're entering a down period again.
The EUR narrative has lost a lot of steam with weaker EUR data and falling inflation. We have Germany HICP today which is also likely to drop further based on how inflation numbers have been coming out from Europe so far this week. This should mean a continued fall in EUR yields and so likely a weaker EUR against the JPY. The JPY narrative seems a little better as well with some slight verbal intervention over the past couple days and the BoJ governor last night sounding a little more hawkish than usual.
rate differentials are pointing lower which should suggest lower for the pair.
sentiment and positioning are pretty high for the pair which suggests upside might be a little more difficult for now.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Comment:
coming out at -0.5% loss, i think for there to be a fall in any jpy cross we need falling stocks and yields and we just aren't getting that right now