First of all, on the Technical Side ; We can notice that the PA on the Daily Chart
crossed below the 50 SMA. The 50 & 100 SMA also crossed over one another November 12th.
That is our first indicator for a pullback PA was supported by the 100 SMA from September
28th to October 23rd. The PA went below for some time until the election we could see a
big bounce (big green candle) on November 9th and the PA just crossed below 100 SMA few
days ago as mentionned above.
Though, we need more confluence before entering. My second indicator would be the
Bollinger Band witha 20 lenght and 2 Standard Deviation ; I noticed that the PA touched the
Higher band on November 9th (the big bounce) and pulled back on the same day on my
4H key level ( around 124.362). PA haven't touched the mid-band yet though but we from
the November 9th Pullback, we can expect the PA to touch it or cross below it depending on
the fundamentals. That being said, the BB indicator would have been more useful for intraday
position throughout the month of October. Therefore I won't put too further attention on it.
My third Indicator would be the RSI with a 14 period. I use 70-30 but I prefer looking the bigger
picture ; 80-20. On the Daily chart, since the Big Bounce of Nov. 9th, RSI level could not break
higher than 60. As a matter of fact, it kept descending since that day ( 8 consecutive days).
Thus, I won't put too much attention on it because the Fundamentals could make the RSI go sideways/
reverse. This indicator only tells me that the trend is downward and if the fundamentals are not
strong enough for a shift of the PA, it could keep going down so I'll keep an eye on it until
some economic data comes out but I don't think the trend would change that much if nothing new happens.
Secondly, I'll have a look at the fundamentals ; For the JPY perspective, the last High Impact news
(November 15th) was the GDP QQ & QQ annualised and both news had a Higher result than anticipated
That resulted in a slight move upward for the PA but nothing big until the following day. When the
Reserve Assets new came out from Europe which was higher than the previous one. That resulted in a move
upward for PA which was maintainted for a day. The PA kept his path afterwards. We can tell that the JPY been
gaining strenght even though the fundamentals from Europe had better results than the previous ones or the
consensus. The following news coming out will be important turning points. We have some on the 17th from Japan
and more from Europe on November 18th. I expect moves upward depending on the results from the Europeean news
If the Actual is too weak, PA will keep it's movement downward. If the actual is better, I expect a slight move upward
before a retracement downward as the trend is pretty much bearish.
Lastly, if we look at the COT data, I noticed that some important factors ;
JPY for the last 4 weeks
Long Short Ch.Long Ch.Short
11-10-2020 55,644 13,750 4,632 -9,164
11-03-2020 51,012 22,914 4,881 -5,324
10-27-2020 46,131 28,238 -393 -4103
10-20-2020 46,524 32,341 -721 5,072
Clearly, the shift has happened. From 46.5k to 55.6k and a lot of short postions have been closed in the last three weeks.
If we look at the Euro, the opposite has happenned ;
11-10-2020 202,374 67,087 -5,863 -801
11-03-2020 208,237 67,888 -9,206 6,000
10-27-2020 217,443 61,888 -12,435 -2,047
10-20-2020 229,878 63,935 1,583 4,277
A lot of position have been closed in the Longs going from 229.8k to 202.3k in Longs and from almost
64k short to 67k. The shift has begun.
Now as the entry I believe everyone should have the proper technical tools to place an entry.
I would personally go as the following : wait for the release of the European News on the 18th.
If PA breaks above two 4H Key level, I will let the PA following it's impulse and wait for the RSI,Fib Levels and SMA 50 & 100
as well as my trend lines to have a good confluence point before placing an entry point. That being said, the Short position on
my chart won't be accurate but I would definitly would be expecting the PA to go between 122.2 and 121.8
Therefore, my TP1 would be 122.2
My TP2 would be 121.8
My TP3 would be 121.45
With an entry at around 124.45
THIS IS JUST AN IDEA AND I AM NOT ADVISING NO ONE TO FOLLOW IT.
crossed below the 50 SMA. The 50 & 100 SMA also crossed over one another November 12th.
That is our first indicator for a pullback PA was supported by the 100 SMA from September
28th to October 23rd. The PA went below for some time until the election we could see a
big bounce (big green candle) on November 9th and the PA just crossed below 100 SMA few
days ago as mentionned above.
Though, we need more confluence before entering. My second indicator would be the
Bollinger Band witha 20 lenght and 2 Standard Deviation ; I noticed that the PA touched the
Higher band on November 9th (the big bounce) and pulled back on the same day on my
4H key level ( around 124.362). PA haven't touched the mid-band yet though but we from
the November 9th Pullback, we can expect the PA to touch it or cross below it depending on
the fundamentals. That being said, the BB indicator would have been more useful for intraday
position throughout the month of October. Therefore I won't put too further attention on it.
My third Indicator would be the RSI with a 14 period. I use 70-30 but I prefer looking the bigger
picture ; 80-20. On the Daily chart, since the Big Bounce of Nov. 9th, RSI level could not break
higher than 60. As a matter of fact, it kept descending since that day ( 8 consecutive days).
Thus, I won't put too much attention on it because the Fundamentals could make the RSI go sideways/
reverse. This indicator only tells me that the trend is downward and if the fundamentals are not
strong enough for a shift of the PA, it could keep going down so I'll keep an eye on it until
some economic data comes out but I don't think the trend would change that much if nothing new happens.
Secondly, I'll have a look at the fundamentals ; For the JPY perspective, the last High Impact news
(November 15th) was the GDP QQ & QQ annualised and both news had a Higher result than anticipated
That resulted in a slight move upward for the PA but nothing big until the following day. When the
Reserve Assets new came out from Europe which was higher than the previous one. That resulted in a move
upward for PA which was maintainted for a day. The PA kept his path afterwards. We can tell that the JPY been
gaining strenght even though the fundamentals from Europe had better results than the previous ones or the
consensus. The following news coming out will be important turning points. We have some on the 17th from Japan
and more from Europe on November 18th. I expect moves upward depending on the results from the Europeean news
If the Actual is too weak, PA will keep it's movement downward. If the actual is better, I expect a slight move upward
before a retracement downward as the trend is pretty much bearish.
Lastly, if we look at the COT data, I noticed that some important factors ;
JPY for the last 4 weeks
Long Short Ch.Long Ch.Short
11-10-2020 55,644 13,750 4,632 -9,164
11-03-2020 51,012 22,914 4,881 -5,324
10-27-2020 46,131 28,238 -393 -4103
10-20-2020 46,524 32,341 -721 5,072
Clearly, the shift has happened. From 46.5k to 55.6k and a lot of short postions have been closed in the last three weeks.
If we look at the Euro, the opposite has happenned ;
11-10-2020 202,374 67,087 -5,863 -801
11-03-2020 208,237 67,888 -9,206 6,000
10-27-2020 217,443 61,888 -12,435 -2,047
10-20-2020 229,878 63,935 1,583 4,277
A lot of position have been closed in the Longs going from 229.8k to 202.3k in Longs and from almost
64k short to 67k. The shift has begun.
Now as the entry I believe everyone should have the proper technical tools to place an entry.
I would personally go as the following : wait for the release of the European News on the 18th.
If PA breaks above two 4H Key level, I will let the PA following it's impulse and wait for the RSI,Fib Levels and SMA 50 & 100
as well as my trend lines to have a good confluence point before placing an entry point. That being said, the Short position on
my chart won't be accurate but I would definitly would be expecting the PA to go between 122.2 and 121.8
Therefore, my TP1 would be 122.2
My TP2 would be 121.8
My TP3 would be 121.45
With an entry at around 124.45
THIS IS JUST AN IDEA AND I AM NOT ADVISING NO ONE TO FOLLOW IT.