I was forecasting since quite some time now that EURUSD
should head to parity this summer, but at the same time I believe that due to carry-trade unwind we need to see USDJPY
at 100. The idea of both happening at the same time seemed odd to me.. I was thinking whether this could be possible at all.
To verify this I decided to look at EURJPY
, and what I see there is a developing very large move to ~100, so roughly the same 10%+10% change vs USD in the underlying currencies.
I'm short EURJPY