EURJPY 01.31.19 COMPLETE BREAKDOWN #FOREX
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
4H
- This candle is printing a massive wick symbolizing sellers' exhaustion. We could see it be filled through the next few months or leave those sellers behind and start to make its push to the upside. 7 more hours until this monthly candle closes.
- This monthly candle is rejecting a key level of support at 125 (Major Quarterly Level).
- The flash crash brought sellers all the way down to roughly 119 before pulling up quickly. Sellers stuck in that range.
Weekly
- Weekly trendline broken, however currently monthly candle displaying sellers exhaustion! Candle could still be filled.
- For the last 3 weeks we've been rejecting the Disturbance Zone @ 124.50. Strong support.
- For 5 weeks the bodies of EURJPY have rejected the 61.8% retracement level.
- Wicks keeping poking above previous weekly highs, BUT bodies continue to close beneath resistance. Buyers are being accumulated around 125-125.50.
Daily
- The last few days have been rejecting the Daily Disturbance Zone @ 125.375.
- Price poked above recent highs, however, the daily candle still closed beneath resistance, capturing liquidity aka buyers being fooled.
- The daily candle that represents the flash crash dropped around 470 pips. However, from the low to the close of the bearish daily flash crash candle, it pulled back around 385 pips. MASSIVE WICK.
- Recent daily support near our Weekly Disturbance Zone @ 124.50-124.60. We've continued to see exhaustion there. Sellers accumulated in that range.
4H
- Price is rejecting the 71% retracement fib level.
- The candle that wicked above resistance (Poked to 124.40-50) accumulated buy orders for those looking for that breakout strategies (retail traders). That candle ended up closing well beneath resistance, symbolized buyers' exhaustion. Don't be fooled by quick movements without price CLOSING at those levels. If the market doesn't close above/below resistance/support then it's not a confirmed break.
- 2 Candles later, we saw another decently sized wick and engulfed to the downside which is what tanked the price.
- The massive bearish candle crushed all recent support zones (124.75), shifting the current momentum and solidifying bearish movement for a few days.
- NO PULLBACK, NO ENTRY
- Now we look at smaller timeframes for selling opportunities. Buyers' exhaustion, reverse candlestick patterns on 1H and below. Look for wicks to show liquidity.
1H
- Price is rejecting our 1H Disturbance Candle for the second time.
- The first rejection of the 1H Disturbance Zone ended in a bearish engulfing candle.
- Price rejected the same level aggressively once again, if this 1H candle engulfs one more time then the bearish move is very strong.
- The consolidation zone (124.60 - 125.30) may be broken with this bearish push. Once we have that close beneath on the 1H & the 4H... then we have further push to the downside.
- A push down to 124.25 once price closes beneath the weekly disturbance zone and is retested.
15 Minute
- Market Structure shifted back to a bearish trend.
- Price rejected 38.2%, extending to 61.8% traditionally (124.125)
- Back to back candlestick patterns at the eighth level (124.875)
Possible Take Profits
- Anyone who was watching this live analysis should have entered anywhere from 124.75-124.875.
- Take Profit based off of 15 min bearish extension would take us to 124.125 conservatively.
- This aligns with the 78.6% retracement on the hourly timeframe. If look into historical trends: liquidity is common around 124.125.
- If we close beneath our current higher low, price would be confirming a shift of momentum. One more bearish push after a pullback is likely. That final push would probably take us see the lowest it'll be for the rest of the year.