EURNOK - Hold shorts! Watch range break at 8,55 for continuation

FX:EURNOK   Euro / Norwegian Krone
55 4 1
- Ichimoku setup is bearish . Price below Kumo and Kijun Sen. For confirmation we need Price break a bit lower, sending Chikou Span into open space after its bearish break below the past Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi has been showing undecision for more than 2 weeks now. Green, red and doji candles changing each after. Today candle is bearish , with haDelta turning down again. We need to see longer body bearish candle and haDelta firm dip below zero line for bearish continuation.
- Lower resistance is ard             8,55. A break and close below opens space to minimum 8,4250 (my original bearish tgt             ), but likely to even lower

- Price is swinging around a thinned Kumo. Range is even more obvious here between 8,55-8,65. We have a medium strong Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross today, and Chikou Span is about to make a strong bearish cross below past Price candles too. (this would be a strong confirmation for more bearish move)
- What makes it more likely for bearish continuation is the change in DMI/ADX setup. ADX has been extremely low for some time now, but with today's price action finally the bearish DMI cross has more chance to widen further.
- Heikin Ashi setup is obviously more bearish now. For confirmation we should see next candle to close below 8,55. From then on every spike you can add to existing shorts.
Do you think it could possibly range for the next couple of days, or even go bullish and rebound of the Kumo and go bearish again?
Kumowizard poshscouse
anything is possible, but this time what you mention I think is less likely than a bearish range break and continuation. Oil is doing quite well, EUR is under general pressure. Looking at pure technicals, the 4H time frame suggest that the DMI may finally be decided. The last two candles were pretty agressively bearish. Also, the longer the hesitation lasts, the most likely it will finally continue into the major direction of the daily setup, which in terms of Ichimoku is clearly bearish. It has had a lot of attempts to go higher in last 3 weeks, and it failed. So more likely it will go down.
poshscouse Kumowizard
So a bearish outlook is more likely? I've been watching this daily chart since the start of the week and I've been thinking about entering but I'm picking my moment
Kumowizard poshscouse
I think it will be more bearish. There was some NOKSEK selling flow on the mkt which kept this EURNOK floating, while other EUR crosses dipped. NOKSEK may go further down a bit, but then both EURNOK and EURSEK I think could come lower from current levels. EURSEK is in a bearish trend too, but short term a bit oversold. That will be a sell on tops ard 9,28-9,32 retest.
EURNOK has a lot more room if wants to catch up.
I don't think Norges Bank will be as "dovish-like" as the Riksbank is trying to be. At least not at these FX levels. The other fundamental question is the Oil and the Norvegian Oil industry.

But you know what? forget about mixing fundamental thinking with Technical analysis! Do what the chart and Price action suggests!
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