Norway depends a lot on Oil price and even more on the Oil industry! However it is still one of the real 'AAA' rated countries, with virtually no debt, and 0,75 % base rate. NOK has suffered a lot during last 2 years, being the worst performing G10 ccy. Weakness had its consequences: they have higher and increasing CPI, which makes Norges Bank less likely to cut rates further.
So if someone would like to bet on Oil mkt recovery, buying NOK (selling EURNOK or maybe USDNOK) can be a lot better choice than buying Oil futures contracts or Oil ETFs. Why? Simply because it EURNOK or USDNOK shorts you still have a minor POSITIVE carry if you hold, while rolling Oil longs can be very painful every month! Recent front end contract contango on Oil curve is ard 2 USD+ between every month, which is a massive negative carry risk.
Also you can be sure that Draghi will try to do "Whatever it takes", or at least communicate that way. Do you think the FED will not re-join this game? I think they will.
One can ask OK, but what happens if the otherwise really prudent and reliable Norgesbank alos joins ccy war? Well, never say never, any central banker can go crazy, but look at what has happened to Sweden? Riksbank cut to negative, doing QE and SEK is still performing quite well.
Efficiency of Central Bankers idiotism is reaching its absolute limits, you always have to look at things on relative value basis.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is bullish, but price reached trend channel top few weeks ago.
- Heikin-Ashi is turning counter bearish. (candle, haDelta/SMA3, Oscillator). Below 9,42 it would break the wedge and Kijun Sen. Did it make a double top? If that gets confirmation Price tgt will be 9,10-9,15 area
- EWO negative divergence.
Daily:
- Ichimoku turned neutral: Price in Kumo cloud and below Kijun Sen. Watch if Senkou lines make a bearish cross 26 days ahead!
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish. haDelta/SMA3 cross down below zero.
- EWO is down to zero -> watch if turns bearish.
KEY LEVEL 9,40+!
p.s.: I hold decent short position.
So if someone would like to bet on Oil mkt recovery, buying NOK (selling EURNOK or maybe USDNOK) can be a lot better choice than buying Oil futures contracts or Oil ETFs. Why? Simply because it EURNOK or USDNOK shorts you still have a minor POSITIVE carry if you hold, while rolling Oil longs can be very painful every month! Recent front end contract contango on Oil curve is ard 2 USD+ between every month, which is a massive negative carry risk.
Also you can be sure that Draghi will try to do "Whatever it takes", or at least communicate that way. Do you think the FED will not re-join this game? I think they will.
One can ask OK, but what happens if the otherwise really prudent and reliable Norgesbank alos joins ccy war? Well, never say never, any central banker can go crazy, but look at what has happened to Sweden? Riksbank cut to negative, doing QE and SEK is still performing quite well.
Efficiency of Central Bankers idiotism is reaching its absolute limits, you always have to look at things on relative value basis.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is bullish, but price reached trend channel top few weeks ago.
- Heikin-Ashi is turning counter bearish. (candle, haDelta/SMA3, Oscillator). Below 9,42 it would break the wedge and Kijun Sen. Did it make a double top? If that gets confirmation Price tgt will be 9,10-9,15 area
- EWO negative divergence.
Daily:
- Ichimoku turned neutral: Price in Kumo cloud and below Kijun Sen. Watch if Senkou lines make a bearish cross 26 days ahead!
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish. haDelta/SMA3 cross down below zero.
- EWO is down to zero -> watch if turns bearish.
KEY LEVEL 9,40+!
p.s.: I hold decent short position.
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