Norway is AAA rated, they have no debt at all, but they have huge cash reserves in their national funds.
The only "problem is" that they are Europe's oil producer country. But its a problem only until Oil starts a correction, or at least stops falling further. Otherwise what is the bigger problem? That Norway's income depends on oil, or if that ECB is ready to blow up the EUR through QE?
After SNB released the 1,2000 EURCHF peg, we have a black swan event today. Algos go crazy, mkts are fckd through all kind of CHF crosses. In terms of real economy CEE countries are fckd a bit too with their still existing CHF loans. I think regardless ECB decision, this black swan event may cause further turbulance in risky assets.
You have to find some safe haven, and as the USD bull is stretched already a bit, against the EUR I do not see a lot of other opportunites than CAD, or NOK.
Technical picture has not changed much since my last post (pls see link below), except a few things:
Daily:
- Chikou Span is hitting Price candles soon and can easily cross below at some point
- yesterday price action suggests there may be some serious strategic EURNOK long position unwinding. That would not be surprising, given the situation in Oil, where we there is an increasing chance for a 15 %+ correction (pls see on the other link below)
- Price is already below the level of Senkou Span B (future Kumo bottom line), still needs to clear the 9,00 key supp/resistance
4 Hrs:
- Price rejecting Kumo again. In fact it was trading a lot higher today during the crazy one hour after the SNB action, the real candle looks different from the one seen here on Tradingview. The spike top was 9,16, Price quickly bounced back down from there
- If Price clears 9,00, Chikou will make a strong bearish cross signal to confirm further price drop.
I think if investors start to look for new safe havens, while Oil pops up a bit, EURNOK will collapse as quickly as it was coming up.
The only "problem is" that they are Europe's oil producer country. But its a problem only until Oil starts a correction, or at least stops falling further. Otherwise what is the bigger problem? That Norway's income depends on oil, or if that ECB is ready to blow up the EUR through QE?
After SNB released the 1,2000 EURCHF peg, we have a black swan event today. Algos go crazy, mkts are fckd through all kind of CHF crosses. In terms of real economy CEE countries are fckd a bit too with their still existing CHF loans. I think regardless ECB decision, this black swan event may cause further turbulance in risky assets.
You have to find some safe haven, and as the USD bull is stretched already a bit, against the EUR I do not see a lot of other opportunites than CAD, or NOK.
Technical picture has not changed much since my last post (pls see link below), except a few things:
Daily:
- Chikou Span is hitting Price candles soon and can easily cross below at some point
- yesterday price action suggests there may be some serious strategic EURNOK long position unwinding. That would not be surprising, given the situation in Oil, where we there is an increasing chance for a 15 %+ correction (pls see on the other link below)
- Price is already below the level of Senkou Span B (future Kumo bottom line), still needs to clear the 9,00 key supp/resistance
4 Hrs:
- Price rejecting Kumo again. In fact it was trading a lot higher today during the crazy one hour after the SNB action, the real candle looks different from the one seen here on Tradingview. The spike top was 9,16, Price quickly bounced back down from there
- If Price clears 9,00, Chikou will make a strong bearish cross signal to confirm further price drop.
I think if investors start to look for new safe havens, while Oil pops up a bit, EURNOK will collapse as quickly as it was coming up.
