JWagnerFXTrader
Short

Triangle Finished? At Support Now

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1508 15 20
10 months ago
In yesterday's webinar for the TradingView community, we talked about the EURUSD             in the current market environment. (see the video clip from the 1:26:07 - 1:27:45 mark -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jE31mbhpDk&feature=youtu.be&a )

It appears as though the pair has finished a blue 'b' wave triangle and we are thrusting lower in the 'c' leg of a zig zag.

There is another alternative that resolves as a bearish scenario as well and that is yesterday's high was the end of wave 2 of v. That would imply a sharp move lower in wave 3 of v.

There is a bullish pattern I'm watching as well that becomes higher probability on a move near 1.07. For the time being and all patterns considered, the patterns suggest prices may push towards 1.07.

Inspecting FXCMSentiment, it has shifted harshly from -1.5 yesterday to +1.2 now. This shift towards the positive is bearish the pair and may provide a tailwind for it. Follow EURUSD             real time SSI             here.

I'm curious what the other ElliottWaver's are considering.

Happy trading!
10 months ago
Comment: 1.0985 is the key level. Above 1.0985 I'll be flat awaiting 1.1085 to break to go long. Below 1.0985, still look for lower levels to 1.07 area.
10 months ago
Comment: Price has bounced from the support from when this was originally published. 1.0985 is a stone's throw away in that if broken, we'll be flat awaiting more clarity or 1.1085 to break. A resting entry order to buy is up at 1.1085.

FXCMSSI continues to drop and is not sitting at -1.77...as we sit at resistance, keep an eye on the live feed.

snapshot
10 months ago
Comment: The birth/death model on non-farm payroll for January (today's release) seasonally takes away jobs. Therefore, I'm mentally prepared for a worse than expected payroll figure which might add more fuel to the dovish Fed rhetoric. That may end up weighing on the USD pushing EURUSD higher. Live FXCMSSI is currently -1.93 which favors the upside in EURUSD as well.

The support level to watch was the former breakout level of 1.1087. If you are in a USD trade, be mindful of the potential volatility coming up later this morning.
Welshman99
10 months ago
Hi JW here's my two penneth....
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Welshman99
10 months ago
Hi Welshman - interesting take. I think the next Draghi and Yellen rate announcement is in March. That may suggest sideways action as you've depicted above unless Chinese stocks flare up again. Thank you for sharing.
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romeo2858
10 months ago
Impressive chart Mr. J,
this is what I'm consider since few weeks back. A Bull sideways correction.
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the latest downslide makes me to disregard the Bear Triangle formation...since the drop were not so impulsive in micro structure (1min chart). Followed by 1H RSI, which drop faster than price and setting price-rsi ratio to another possible bullish divergence.
In lower TF wave counts, the sudden drop is more like an X wave of W-X-Y formation of (d) wave which is incomplete yet.
Expecting a bull next week back to level 1.0980s level.
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO romeo2858
10 months ago
Impressive back to you Romeo. One heck of a sideways consolidation. GBPUSD looks constructive to the upside and NZDUSD up move looks contained to a temporary correction. So it appears to be a USD mixed move for the time being.
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PaQu
10 months ago
The sentiment switched again from +1,2% to - 1,70% now. Now it appears that price will go more up....
+1 Reply
JWagnerFXTrader PRO PaQu
10 months ago
Good catch PaQu - sentiment is growing more negative which favors the bulls. A break above 1.1085 would be significant and enough to position me to the long side.
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PaQu JWagnerFXTrader
10 months ago
Thanks. Your explanation how to read sentiment changes was very helpful. Thanks a lot and good luck!
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Though prices have increased aggressively today, they have yet to break 1.1085 - this is a super important level that if broken, overlaps the Sept 3 2015 low which is a big deal in Elliott Wave terms. Resting entry order to go long at 1.1090 targeting 1.17. If price doesn't get to 1.1090, that is fine.
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tricky_nik
10 months ago
snapshot
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO tricky_nik
10 months ago
Thank you for the image tricky_nik; what is the context of the next degree higher you are considering?
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tricky_nik JWagnerFXTrader
10 months ago
Hi, Jeremy. For me 1.1253 interesting level: 1.618 extension from 5 Jan, and equal C
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tricky_nik JWagnerFXTrader
10 months ago
In addition, daily RSI(14) come near overbought territory
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Welshman99
10 months ago
Hi JW, my latest thoughts and update - possible ending diagonal? what do you think?
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Welshman99
10 months ago
An ending diagonal is a possibility for a wave 5 lower, but I would label it differently.

Consider that each leg of an ending diagonal must be 3 wave zig zags. Therefore, it is possible the Aug 24-Dec3 move was A-B-C for wave 1 of the diagonal. Now, we are potentially in wave 2 which also needs to be a zig zag.

Under this diagonal wave count, prices must remain below the Aug 24 high. Dec 3 through today must be an A-B-C zig zag and there is a zig zag equal wave measurement near 1.1250. That is to saw C equals A (in wave 2) near 1.1250.

This is still a viable pattern so check out the behavior as we get into 1.12-1.14.

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Welshman99
10 months ago
Thanks for that JW I'll be watching:)
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