JWagnerFXTrader
Short

Triangle Finished? At Support Now

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1513 15 21
In yesterday's webinar for the TradingView community, we talked about the EURUSD             in the current market environment. (see the video clip from the 1:26:07 - 1:27:45 mark -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jE31mbhpDk&feature=youtu.be&a )

It appears as though the pair has finished a blue 'b' wave triangle and we are thrusting lower in the 'c' leg of a zig zag .

There is another alternative that resolves as a bearish scenario as well and that is yesterday's high was the end of wave 2 of v. That would imply a sharp move lower in wave 3 of v.

There is a bullish pattern I'm watching as well that becomes higher probability on a move near 1.07. For the time being and all patterns considered, the patterns suggest prices may push towards 1.07.

Inspecting FXCMSentiment, it has shifted harshly from -1.5 yesterday to +1.2 now. This shift towards the positive is bearish the pair and may provide a tailwind for it. Follow EURUSD             real time SSI             here.

I'm curious what the other ElliottWaver's are considering.

Happy trading!
Comment: 1.0985 is the key level. Above 1.0985 I'll be flat awaiting 1.1085 to break to go long. Below 1.0985, still look for lower levels to 1.07 area.
Comment: Price has bounced from the support from when this was originally published. 1.0985 is a stone's throw away in that if broken, we'll be flat awaiting more clarity or 1.1085 to break. A resting entry order to buy is up at 1.1085.

FXCMSSI continues to drop and is not sitting at -1.77...as we sit at resistance, keep an eye on the live feed.

snapshot
Comment: The birth/death model on non-farm payroll for January (today's release) seasonally takes away jobs. Therefore, I'm mentally prepared for a worse than expected payroll figure which might add more fuel to the dovish Fed rhetoric. That may end up weighing on the USD pushing EURUSD higher. Live FXCMSSI is currently -1.93 which favors the upside in EURUSD as well.

The support level to watch was the former breakout level of 1.1087. If you are in a USD trade, be mindful of the potential volatility coming up later this morning.
Thanks for that JW I'll be watching:)
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Hi JW, my latest thoughts and update - possible ending diagonal? what do you think?
snapshot
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An ending diagonal is a possibility for a wave 5 lower, but I would label it differently.

Consider that each leg of an ending diagonal must be 3 wave zig zags. Therefore, it is possible the Aug 24-Dec3 move was A-B-C for wave 1 of the diagonal. Now, we are potentially in wave 2 which also needs to be a zig zag.

Under this diagonal wave count, prices must remain below the Aug 24 high. Dec 3 through today must be an A-B-C zig zag and there is a zig zag equal wave measurement near 1.1250. That is to saw C equals A (in wave 2) near 1.1250.

This is still a viable pattern so check out the behavior as we get into 1.12-1.14.

snapshot
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Thank you for the image tricky_nik; what is the context of the next degree higher you are considering?
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tricky_nik JWagnerFXTrader
Hi, Jeremy. For me 1.1253 interesting level: 1.618 extension from 5 Jan, and equal C
snapshot
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tricky_nik JWagnerFXTrader
In addition, daily RSI(14) come near overbought territory
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Though prices have increased aggressively today, they have yet to break 1.1085 - this is a super important level that if broken, overlaps the Sept 3 2015 low which is a big deal in Elliott Wave terms. Resting entry order to go long at 1.1090 targeting 1.17. If price doesn't get to 1.1090, that is fine.
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The sentiment switched again from +1,2% to - 1,70% now. Now it appears that price will go more up....
+1 Reply
Good catch PaQu - sentiment is growing more negative which favors the bulls. A break above 1.1085 would be significant and enough to position me to the long side.
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