H1 demand-turned supply zone at 1.1044/1.1024 in sight...
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of February witnessed EUR/USD revisit the upper limit of demand at 1.0488/1.0912 – a noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – and pencil in an appealing (bullish) hammer candlestick pattern.
March, as you can see, manoeuvred the pair into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352. However, leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unchallenged, price has reversed and is on track to chalk up a shooting star bearish candlestick signal and potentially revisit demand mentioned above at 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion and has remained lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Outlook partially altered from previous analysis -
Following a precipitous decline from supply at 1.1540/1.1486, an area located within the confines of the said monthly demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, the 200-day SMA provided brief respite, though gave way Tuesday with price embracing demand at 1.0940/1.1002.
Despite a mild end-of day correction, monthly structure proposes we may tunnel through the current daily demand as the top edge of the monthly demand zone is set around 1.0912. While 1.0912 could halt further loss, daily price exhibits scope to test demand coming in at 1.0680/1.0781, which happens to reside within the current monthly demand zone.
What’s also notable from a technical perspective is the RSI indicator recently exiting overbought levels, fading peaks at 82.00 (values not seen since March 2008) and overthrowing 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
EUR/USD swerved to near-three-week lows at 1.0954 Tuesday, closing in on the 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0981. A modest bid emerged off the said Fib level, charting the way for a retest at 1.1038/1.1072, a demand-turned supply area. Failure to hold off 1.0981 establishes a basis for an approach to trendline resistance-turned support (1.1172).
Another constructive development worthy of note on this timeframe is the unit remains compressing within a descending channel formation (1.1484/1.1055).
H1 timeframe:
The greenback surged Tuesday, driven higher by funding pressures while disregarding liquidity offered by the Fed. The euro lost out as the buck gained, boosted higher by US Treasury yields.
Short-term intraday flow bottomed a few points ahead of 1.0950, following a precipitous decline from peaks set just south of the 1.12 handle. Neighbouring demand-turned supply at 1.1044/1.1024 is in view north of 1.10, with a break revealing 1.1050 and a 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.1060. With respect to the RSI indicator we recently exited oversold levels and currently trade at 34.88.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price portends lower moves, placing a question mark on daily demand at 1.0940/1.1002. The H1 demand-turned supply zone at 1.1044/1.1024 is glued to the underside of the H4 demand-turned supply area at 1.1038/1.1072, therefore could be an area where sellers make an appearance from today. Moves below 1.10 would be the initial objective out of 1.1044/1.1024, followed by a move to 1.0950 and possibly to 1.09, which is where buyers are most likely to step in due to the top edge of monthly demand residing around this neighbourhood.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of February witnessed EUR/USD revisit the upper limit of demand at 1.0488/1.0912 – a noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – and pencil in an appealing (bullish) hammer candlestick pattern.
March, as you can see, manoeuvred the pair into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352. However, leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unchallenged, price has reversed and is on track to chalk up a shooting star bearish candlestick signal and potentially revisit demand mentioned above at 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion and has remained lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Outlook partially altered from previous analysis -
Following a precipitous decline from supply at 1.1540/1.1486, an area located within the confines of the said monthly demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, the 200-day SMA provided brief respite, though gave way Tuesday with price embracing demand at 1.0940/1.1002.
Despite a mild end-of day correction, monthly structure proposes we may tunnel through the current daily demand as the top edge of the monthly demand zone is set around 1.0912. While 1.0912 could halt further loss, daily price exhibits scope to test demand coming in at 1.0680/1.0781, which happens to reside within the current monthly demand zone.
What’s also notable from a technical perspective is the RSI indicator recently exiting overbought levels, fading peaks at 82.00 (values not seen since March 2008) and overthrowing 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
EUR/USD swerved to near-three-week lows at 1.0954 Tuesday, closing in on the 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0981. A modest bid emerged off the said Fib level, charting the way for a retest at 1.1038/1.1072, a demand-turned supply area. Failure to hold off 1.0981 establishes a basis for an approach to trendline resistance-turned support (1.1172).
Another constructive development worthy of note on this timeframe is the unit remains compressing within a descending channel formation (1.1484/1.1055).
H1 timeframe:
The greenback surged Tuesday, driven higher by funding pressures while disregarding liquidity offered by the Fed. The euro lost out as the buck gained, boosted higher by US Treasury yields.
Short-term intraday flow bottomed a few points ahead of 1.0950, following a precipitous decline from peaks set just south of the 1.12 handle. Neighbouring demand-turned supply at 1.1044/1.1024 is in view north of 1.10, with a break revealing 1.1050 and a 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.1060. With respect to the RSI indicator we recently exited oversold levels and currently trade at 34.88.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price portends lower moves, placing a question mark on daily demand at 1.0940/1.1002. The H1 demand-turned supply zone at 1.1044/1.1024 is glued to the underside of the H4 demand-turned supply area at 1.1038/1.1072, therefore could be an area where sellers make an appearance from today. Moves below 1.10 would be the initial objective out of 1.1044/1.1024, followed by a move to 1.0950 and possibly to 1.09, which is where buyers are most likely to step in due to the top edge of monthly demand residing around this neighbourhood.