:: Longterm Hypothesis :: Eur/Usd

I was confronted with the question of what my long-term view of the Eur is and I wanted to try to list it briefly and concisely here.

This is the monthly chart, once the hourly EurUsd and once the continuous euro future. Unfortunately, the future doesn't give me the same amount of data, it's just like that ...

Now all of my decisions are based on value. Accordingly, there are three very distinctive zones for me on the large EurUsd chart. Each has a very strong S / R and the price loves to test both sides if it is allowed to penetrate. Of course, this doesn't always work. If it doesn't work, the next logical point is usually the last value area. If we don't feel comfortable somewhere, we tend to go where we feel good. The price is just like us.
It is interesting that we are currently in a value area (VA) of a larger VA. This gives a little more support and ensures good support.

The scenario drawn on the chart is of course only one possible variant of how it could work:
- Price tries to penetrate the new VA
- will be rejected
- Tests the previous VA
- is also thrown off again and receives the tip that the price should please report up again
- the price follows the advice, is warmly welcomed, but asks the doorman again if he is really welcome
- Doorman says ok and the price can pass

We come to the future. The time is marked here with the vertical lines. The futures give us the most transparent volume one can get, so it is used here as an aid. The large profile looks very ugly. The market likes to be balanced and prefers to shape a nice curve. I inserted this curve by hand and made it visible. In the gap (green box on Charts 1 and 2), the price ideally still has a lot of transactions to make in order to make the profile nice and round.
That, in turn, could happen with the process that the price -possibly. even - several times he is not allowed into the new zone and he has to wander back and forth between the two VAs over and over again - completely indecisive - in order to achieve this goal.

If we add the Dxy , which is currently falling very sharply, this will give wings to the long-term positive outlook for a strong euro .
In 2020, 20% of the existing dollar inventory was generated. There have never been as many dollars as there are today and the dollar is becoming worthless and worthless. Of course, it can't always fall, so we have a more or less interesting liquidity zone that can be triggered. If this happens, then it increases the chance of our scenario with the fill of the transaction curve.

To me that sounds like a very coherent and logical price behavior that we could experience in the near future.

#EurUsd $EurUsd #ED1! $ED1! #Dxy $Dxy