Greetings dear investors and traders!
The currency pair worked perfectly for the movement, which could be predicted by many mathematical indicators.
While market analysts are looking for an excuse for this movement, let's see what has changed in the technical picture last week:
Euro - formed a new maximum at 1.1019 and ended the week with an increase of ≈158 points or + 1.46%, while it overcame the global trend down and local resistance from the past triangle.
So, we see the prerequisites for the growth of the trading range and a possible increase in volatility.
Technical analysis:
H1
Given such a strong decline that we are seeing this week, it will be difficult to expect a further decline from the euro.
Price movement implies the achievement of a downtrend retest level.
At the same time, it is extremely important how the price behaves. There are 2 scenarios:
No. 1:
The pair will continue to decline to the level of retest, and from there it will begin to smoothly consolidate. If successful, the price will be able to demonstrate growth in the region of 1.1020-1.1050.
No. 2:
The currency pair will jump from the current zone back to the level of 1.0900, in this case, it will be more like a classic, indicative rebound. And when consolidating or activating sellers, we will see lower levels, possibly 1.0750.
H4
The price approaches the zone of potential purchases, but at the moment, the opening of long positions is premature.
The price has not gone beyond the framework of “adequate behavior”.
= ≥There are no signs of closing short positions yet.
W1
Global trends have not changed after the volatile months of 2020, this can be judged on the basis that the average price for 100 days does not overcome the 200-day average line.
Volatility data and possible goals for the current month:
A) Average volatility:
- Weekly = 89 points;
- Monthly = 99 points;
- 3 months = 80 points;
B) Potential goals:
- For bulls = 1.1078, 1.1211 and possibly 1.1387;
- For bears = 1.0770, 1.0592 and possibly 1.0460;
- Monthly pivot point = 1.0923;
! Attention, average volatility must be taken into account when placing stops, so that your order is not knocked down by market noise.
! Attention, potential monthly targets may be both final closing levels of positions and potential reversal levels.
Recommendations:
If you hold short positions like us, they can be transferred to breakeven, as the current week promises to be very volatile.
Purchases are possible from the level of: 1.0800, but only in case of consolidation.
Repeated sale is possible from 1.0900, but with short stops - 1.0930 and also, only in case of consolidation.
To your attention, a link to the analysis in tradingview:
Regards to subscribers,
Ltd. «Wermelgion & Partners Investment»
!Attention: Trading financial instruments and (or) cryptocurrencies is fraught with high risks, including the risk of losing part or all of the investment, therefore it is not suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are extremely volatile and can change due to external factors such as financial news, legislative decisions or political events. Margin trading leads to increased financial risks.
Ltd ”Wermelgion and Partners Investment” and any provider of the data contained on this website disclaim liability for any loss or loss incurred as a result of trading transactions made with reference to the information provided.
The currency pair worked perfectly for the movement, which could be predicted by many mathematical indicators.
While market analysts are looking for an excuse for this movement, let's see what has changed in the technical picture last week:
Euro - formed a new maximum at 1.1019 and ended the week with an increase of ≈158 points or + 1.46%, while it overcame the global trend down and local resistance from the past triangle.
So, we see the prerequisites for the growth of the trading range and a possible increase in volatility.
Technical analysis:
H1
Given such a strong decline that we are seeing this week, it will be difficult to expect a further decline from the euro.
Price movement implies the achievement of a downtrend retest level.
At the same time, it is extremely important how the price behaves. There are 2 scenarios:
No. 1:
The pair will continue to decline to the level of retest, and from there it will begin to smoothly consolidate. If successful, the price will be able to demonstrate growth in the region of 1.1020-1.1050.
No. 2:
The currency pair will jump from the current zone back to the level of 1.0900, in this case, it will be more like a classic, indicative rebound. And when consolidating or activating sellers, we will see lower levels, possibly 1.0750.
H4
The price approaches the zone of potential purchases, but at the moment, the opening of long positions is premature.
The price has not gone beyond the framework of “adequate behavior”.
= ≥There are no signs of closing short positions yet.
W1
Global trends have not changed after the volatile months of 2020, this can be judged on the basis that the average price for 100 days does not overcome the 200-day average line.
Volatility data and possible goals for the current month:
A) Average volatility:
- Weekly = 89 points;
- Monthly = 99 points;
- 3 months = 80 points;
B) Potential goals:
- For bulls = 1.1078, 1.1211 and possibly 1.1387;
- For bears = 1.0770, 1.0592 and possibly 1.0460;
- Monthly pivot point = 1.0923;
! Attention, average volatility must be taken into account when placing stops, so that your order is not knocked down by market noise.
! Attention, potential monthly targets may be both final closing levels of positions and potential reversal levels.
Recommendations:
If you hold short positions like us, they can be transferred to breakeven, as the current week promises to be very volatile.
Purchases are possible from the level of: 1.0800, but only in case of consolidation.
Repeated sale is possible from 1.0900, but with short stops - 1.0930 and also, only in case of consolidation.
To your attention, a link to the analysis in tradingview:
Regards to subscribers,
Ltd. «Wermelgion & Partners Investment»
!Attention: Trading financial instruments and (or) cryptocurrencies is fraught with high risks, including the risk of losing part or all of the investment, therefore it is not suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are extremely volatile and can change due to external factors such as financial news, legislative decisions or political events. Margin trading leads to increased financial risks.
Ltd ”Wermelgion and Partners Investment” and any provider of the data contained on this website disclaim liability for any loss or loss incurred as a result of trading transactions made with reference to the information provided.