IDEA 17 revised: EUR/USD short giving conflicting signals.
Hi traders. my short is in place, albeit underwater. The EuroZone 4th quarter wage index dropped from 4.7-4.5% which gives the ECB some wiggle room before cutting rates. Christine Lagarde pointed to wage inflation as a big concern guiding the rate outlook. I believe she indicated that the Q1 of 2024 will bring them closer to a rate cut or not. This of course correlated with USD non farm payrolls being consistently exceeding expectations.
I am giving this trade significant latitude since we have so many conflicting signals on the charts. My stop is above 1.0873.
I have updated the charts to give an alternative look at current price action.
I have borrowed the 4h channel idea from @Lingrid to contrast with the medium term down channel.
Kudos on your long EUR call, @Lingrid
I do not expect tomorrow's FOMC minutes to significantly move the needle. The headline event will be Friday's CPI print for the EuroZone.
The USD interest rate is still 100 base points above the EURO rate, so my best guess is that we are currently looking at testing and retesting of levels. keep an eye on 1.0845-73 and 1.0771-61 on the down side.
I am giving this trade significant latitude since we have so many conflicting signals on the charts. My stop is above 1.0873.
I have updated the charts to give an alternative look at current price action.
I have borrowed the 4h channel idea from @Lingrid to contrast with the medium term down channel.
Kudos on your long EUR call, @Lingrid
I do not expect tomorrow's FOMC minutes to significantly move the needle. The headline event will be Friday's CPI print for the EuroZone.
The USD interest rate is still 100 base points above the EURO rate, so my best guess is that we are currently looking at testing and retesting of levels. keep an eye on 1.0845-73 and 1.0771-61 on the down side.
Comment:
Chart position adjustment