Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (20.07-24.07.)
Summary of last week:
Euro fell against the dollar as much as 3% in a week and it was the best week for the dollar since May this year. The opening took place at the level of 1.1105 and closing at 1.0831. The impact on this state of affairs had several factors. Firstly, it should be noted that the market does not really believe or fixed aid to Greece is sufficient and whether the Greeks themselves have enough strength to carry out reforms. Another factor that supported the dollar were good US data which further confirms recent statements by Janet Yellen, who pointed out that there is a real chance for a rate hike in the United States. Data from the US and Europe further emphasize the difference in perspectives between the distal monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed.
Economic calendar for next week:
Monday: we will see data on PPI in Germany;
Tuesday: lack of relevant data;
Wednesday: sale of existing properties in the US
Thursday: ascendant declared to the unemployed in the US
Friday: we will know the figures for individual European countries and for the whole euro zone, then the US will flow data on PMI as well as data on sales of new property.
As you can see in the next week we do not have too much data. The most important of these will be announced on Wednesday and Thursday.
Forecast for Monday:
The currency pair reached a significant support levels zone extending between 1,0818-35 (lows of May 27). This zone has been repeatedly described by me as a target for clearer declines, after piercing the 1.0916 level. Therefore, considering the large oversold and reaching the above-mentioned support levels, should take into account the correction recent declines. The concept of correction seems more probable, because at these levels, the game should join the demand side. The first goal for the demand should be the level of 1.0916 then if it is defeated it would look for another resistance in the vicinity of 1,0954-1.10.
In the longer term it is expected to return to the vicinity of the minimum (1,0818-31) and if you should expect to overcome the declines in the vicinity of this year's low of 1.0456.
Euro fell against the dollar as much as 3% in a week and it was the best week for the dollar since May this year. The opening took place at the level of 1.1105 and closing at 1.0831. The impact on this state of affairs had several factors. Firstly, it should be noted that the market does not really believe or fixed aid to Greece is sufficient and whether the Greeks themselves have enough strength to carry out reforms. Another factor that supported the dollar were good US data which further confirms recent statements by Janet Yellen, who pointed out that there is a real chance for a rate hike in the United States. Data from the US and Europe further emphasize the difference in perspectives between the distal monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed.
Economic calendar for next week:
Monday: we will see data on PPI in Germany;
Tuesday: lack of relevant data;
Wednesday: sale of existing properties in the US
Thursday: ascendant declared to the unemployed in the US
Friday: we will know the figures for individual European countries and for the whole euro zone, then the US will flow data on PMI as well as data on sales of new property.
As you can see in the next week we do not have too much data. The most important of these will be announced on Wednesday and Thursday.
Forecast for Monday:
The currency pair reached a significant support levels zone extending between 1,0818-35 (lows of May 27). This zone has been repeatedly described by me as a target for clearer declines, after piercing the 1.0916 level. Therefore, considering the large oversold and reaching the above-mentioned support levels, should take into account the correction recent declines. The concept of correction seems more probable, because at these levels, the game should join the demand side. The first goal for the demand should be the level of 1.0916 then if it is defeated it would look for another resistance in the vicinity of 1,0954-1.10.
In the longer term it is expected to return to the vicinity of the minimum (1,0818-31) and if you should expect to overcome the declines in the vicinity of this year's low of 1.0456.