Goldman Axes Short Dollar Call as U.S. Yields Spoil Bet (Party)
By Ruth Carson
April 5, 2021, 2:22 AM EDT Updated on April 5, 2021, 1:05 PM EDT
www.bloomberg.com/ne...-s-yields-spoils-bet
Almost six months after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended shorting the dollar, it’s calling it quits on the trade.
In a note titled “tactical retreat,” Goldman’s currency team closed its recommended short greenback position against a basket of Group-of-10 commodity currencies, including the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The firm joins hedge funds and other investors capitulating on bearish dollar bets after surging Treasury yields triggered a rebound in the U.S. currency, capsizing one of the world’s most crowded macro trades.
“Although we still expect these currencies to appreciate versus the dollar over the coming quarters, firm U.S. growth and rising bond yields may keep the greenback supported over the short-term,” strategists including Zach Pandl wrote in a note Friday. “After a choppy few months we are closing our recommended dollar short trade.”
To me this looks like , The Sledge hummer is coming to the slaughter house for speculators/newbies. Goldman Sachs does not just get out of a profitable trade unless something drastically changed . I guess we should expect the EURUSD to appreciate now ? but wait !!!! EURUSD has been appreciating ?? . The USD Treasury Yields are rising and US inflation is ticking up and that's USD friendly but the EU is still dealing with another major COVID-19 surge again.
Please hey wise men of Goldman Sachs empire can you look into your crystal balls and tell us what is going on.
The commodity pairs include pairing the U.S. dollar (USD) with the Canadian dollar (CAD), Australian dollar (AUD), and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The Russian ruble (RUB), Brazilian real (BRL), and Saudi riyal (SAR) are also currencies sensitive to prices of commodities. This implies that USD being stronger in the Short-term and that also implies it affecting the rate at which EURUSD & GBPUSD will appreciate / rally /collapse
April 5, 2021, 2:22 AM EDT Updated on April 5, 2021, 1:05 PM EDT
www.bloomberg.com/ne...-s-yields-spoils-bet
Almost six months after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended shorting the dollar, it’s calling it quits on the trade.
In a note titled “tactical retreat,” Goldman’s currency team closed its recommended short greenback position against a basket of Group-of-10 commodity currencies, including the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The firm joins hedge funds and other investors capitulating on bearish dollar bets after surging Treasury yields triggered a rebound in the U.S. currency, capsizing one of the world’s most crowded macro trades.
“Although we still expect these currencies to appreciate versus the dollar over the coming quarters, firm U.S. growth and rising bond yields may keep the greenback supported over the short-term,” strategists including Zach Pandl wrote in a note Friday. “After a choppy few months we are closing our recommended dollar short trade.”
To me this looks like , The Sledge hummer is coming to the slaughter house for speculators/newbies. Goldman Sachs does not just get out of a profitable trade unless something drastically changed . I guess we should expect the EURUSD to appreciate now ? but wait !!!! EURUSD has been appreciating ?? . The USD Treasury Yields are rising and US inflation is ticking up and that's USD friendly but the EU is still dealing with another major COVID-19 surge again.
Please hey wise men of Goldman Sachs empire can you look into your crystal balls and tell us what is going on.
The commodity pairs include pairing the U.S. dollar (USD) with the Canadian dollar (CAD), Australian dollar (AUD), and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The Russian ruble (RUB), Brazilian real (BRL), and Saudi riyal (SAR) are also currencies sensitive to prices of commodities. This implies that USD being stronger in the Short-term and that also implies it affecting the rate at which EURUSD & GBPUSD will appreciate / rally /collapse
Comment:
To see how Major banks trading are very split on where EURUSD should go. Look at this report by Tim Clayton comparing some bank forcasts
exchangerates.org.uk/news/32508/2021-04-05-euro-us-dollar-exchange-rate-forecasts-for-next-6-12-months-banks-spilt-2022-eur-usd-view.html
and look at the comparison table at the end
We are either correct that EURUSD will rise and the banks will take the hit or we are all wrong , the EURUSD will fall a little and the banks will be correct. I am not sure which one to believe. Retail traders or Banks ???? . FX trading is not GameStop Stock where retail traders can gang up against the banks. its a market with over USD$ 5-Trillion in transacted volume everyday . That's unlikely . So its going to Banks against Banks and the Retail Traders will be caught in between as always.
exchangerates.org.uk/news/32508/2021-04-05-euro-us-dollar-exchange-rate-forecasts-for-next-6-12-months-banks-spilt-2022-eur-usd-view.html
and look at the comparison table at the end
We are either correct that EURUSD will rise and the banks will take the hit or we are all wrong , the EURUSD will fall a little and the banks will be correct. I am not sure which one to believe. Retail traders or Banks ???? . FX trading is not GameStop Stock where retail traders can gang up against the banks. its a market with over USD$ 5-Trillion in transacted volume everyday . That's unlikely . So its going to Banks against Banks and the Retail Traders will be caught in between as always.
SUSTAINED CLEAR UP TREND starts when = SMA-50 > SMA-100 > SMA-200 and clear separation of MAs is confirmed
April 2002 to April 2005 - 1 times recovered
March 2006 to August 2008 - 1 failed to recover
May 2009 to December 2009 - 1 failed to recover
Feb 2011 to Nov 2011 - 1 failed to recover
Jul 2013 to Jun 2014 - 1 failed to recover
Jul 2017 to May 2018 - 1 failed to recover
Jun 2020 to Mar 2021 - ???????? what is it going to be ?? Continue UP or obey the historical trend and fall ????
I left out minor uptrends which met the conditions but were not strong enough.
Don't shoot the messenger , i am just reading what the historical data and charts are saying. I have no crystal ball. The markets will always have a beat to it . So keep on dancing .