I see your view, my main concern lies with the fundamentals. First, Bank of Canada released a statement that was very bullish for CAD and largely unexpected. The initial push down in EURCAD however, was quickly bough back and within a 24 hour period new highs were made. Second, with the FED meeting around the corner, I would not want to be caught on the short side of the Euro. My view is, and has been for some time that the FED will not be raising rates anytime soon, and especially not at a time where it is on a verge of disinflation.
I should add to that the fundamental side of the Euro. The recent downward revision in inflation targets were bearish, perhaps some of the euro pairs were oversold, But we have already climbed to new highs pre ECB. All these moves point to an underlining strength, perhaps a clue as to how smart money is positioning.
Very smart analysis., impressed with your usage of fundamentals. I have to admit that my knowledge on fundamentals is very weak., only way I use fundamental analysis is to find confluence with Elliott wave structure and news releases..,
I guess our analysis will cross paths once the channel breaks.., :)
Using Elliott Wave has been very effective to know the outcome of a news release prior to it. This week is no different with the FED up on the docket, high volatility can certainly be expected. My wave count differs in that where you have depicted wave (c), my view is that is just the start of the wave. It is too short in time and price to be able to call the move completed as of yet. Here is my count.