NZDUSD is set to close a third consecutive day in the red. A bear flag may potentially be playing out and price action is reaching the lower bound.
The pair has pretty much traded sideways for most of the year so a bounce from the lower line of the rising trend channel appears probable. A bearish break, however, should offer a good opportunity to get short.
WTI Crude Oil has seen a technical break lower, although momentum has not accompanied the later part of the move.
A rising 4-hour channel broke down last Friday, with momentum accelerating to the downside, and a rising trendline from February lows was seen broken during the FOMC Statement on Wednesday.
Retracements in the pair may now be capped by resistance...
The FOMC rate statement today is expected to remain unchanged with swap traders pricing in a 2% probability of a rate hike today. The focus will be on the recent NFP figure, Inflation and if July remains 'live'.
The Fed will likely dismiss the NFP miss as Yellen already did in her speech last Monday. They should address stagnation in the PCE Index, and though...
I sent out a bullish chart on Oil on Friday, as the instrument went back to retest highs.
As per the chart, it did not confirm the bullish break by taking out the 46.04 level, for the ABC up.
We have however, taken out the lows, and broken the up channel. This is a strong short setup.
It remains to be seen if we retest the upper channel line of the new down...
At the start of the week, we saw some pressure on Oil, possibly suggesting we may have topped out
The chart shows we are holding the up channel, and we are likely still in the bullish cycle.
On 4H, if the current candle closes near it's current levels, we would have a bullish engulfing candle. We are also showing a higher low followed by the low made two days...
EURJPY on 1H showing a potential break of the flag pattern.
Looking for confirmation via a 1H break below the channel. Bearish invalidation comes in at wave B highs at 123.21
Targets open to the downside based on price action
A general outlook on the USD for the next week.
At the beginning of the week, we saw some USD strength, however the price action today shows the DXY is threatening the highs at 95.20.
It is already starting to look like a bullish ABC pattern, however a break of 95.20 will confirm it. We can see a pull back of course, but the lows set during the ECB meeting,...
The wave count indicates the bullish move occured from end of Feb lows at 1.3835 at 1.4515 highs on March 18.
Since then we have started a bearish cycle.
With in the bearish cycle we have already completed an ABC sequence lower to 1.4005 which marks Wave w.
Looking for wave X to sell into for the next leg down, it looks like it is already in at 1.4418,...
There has been hesitation in getting short usdjpy over the past month. Probably because of the strong up trend we have seen over the past few years.
The pair has now switched to a bearish trend on all TF's 4H and up.
There was also a fear of intervention from the BOJ, keep in mind, they have already attempted to surprise the market with a rate cut back in Jan...
CADCHF has shown rejection from the top of a down channel as it looks to be flagging in a larger down trend.
Short setup while below upper channel line. Good setup from current levels with stops above the spike highs marked in the eclipse.
Alternatively wait for the bear flag channel to show a down side break for a more conservative setup.
Silver is having a heavy down day on the daily, however the pair is still largely in an uptrend.
With the DXY bouncing against it's 61.8% Fib, this may be an area to try a Long positions.
The pair showing signs of bouncing on the 1H against a rising trendline, bottom of the channel, as well as an 88.6% Fib. with stops below the lows at 15.132 this offer's a...
The GBPUSD looks to be in a bullish corrective structure. Looking for one more high towards the daily resistance area at 1.46
We are starting to see some buying near the bottom of the channel which confluences with the 88.6% Fib. The 4H Candle has yet to close, however, good risk to reward from this area with stops below the 1.40527 lows.
A 1H or 4H bullish...
The USD is in a clear downtrend, and buying dips in the EURUSD is the preferred trade.
Nice confluence zone here with the 61.8% Fib as well as the rising channel. An upside break of the smaller down channel displayed on the chart would confirm that the down move has completed and we continue higher.
Targets for this setup are at 1.15. Stops below Daily...
Nice 4H Rejection in a resistance confluence zone.
The 88.6% Fib level and Channel top had the AUDJPY draw a doji followed by a big bear candle down. Short positions here offer great R:R with targets near lows.
Wave Count shows a double correction down, having already finished the first leg, and pulling back in the second.
Last week we saw oil bottom out and correct against the trend (see related idea). It looks like the correction has completed as price saw a sharp rejection from the Daily Trendline and 61.8% Fib. It looks like we are once again resuming the downtrend.
Chart includes updated wave count.
Please check the related ideas for the overall picture.