How predict a false breakout?
Predicting a false or true breakout is complicated by the fact that the currency rate takes into account everything. The release of news or any unforeseen events, or insider information can make big traders give up their intentions to reverse price or breakout levels.
In most cases currency rates behavior near important lines will show if the breakout is true or false. High volatility is associated with the actions of a large trader, who is "pushing through" the currency rate in order to gather stop-losses and reverse quotes. High volatility and large candles on the approach to the level is a sign of an upcoming false-break.
A true breakout is defined by low volatility, especially in case of a sharp transition to a sideways trend after a strong trend. The phenomenon of volatility narrowing before the resumption of a trend movement is described in details in the literature and in the strategies of various indicators.
False breakdouts usually occur when market volatility is low you will notice that the range of candles becomes small.
False Breakdown Trading Strategies
If we talk about the general approach to strategies for catching reversals from important levels, it is worth highlighting two tactical techniques.
1. Entry after the price returns beyond the key level
The first one is aggressive and the most efficient way to enter by pending order, which is executed after the candle closes behind the level. The break in the resistance level gives the opportunity to place the Sell Stop. The indent of the pending order may be larger or smaller depending on the pair type, timeframe and volatility.
The order will be triggered only upon reversal of prices. The trader should protect the trade with a stop loss, which is placed behind the maximum of a false breakout. Take Profit can be set at the closest support level if the situation with a false breakdown is considered in the growth of the currency market.
In case of the fall the trader places the Buy Stop order. The size of the stop loss is determined by the minimum of a false breakdown candle. After the rebound and the activation of the order, it is necessary to set a take profit at the nearest resistance.
The trader should understand that high volatility is able to activate the pending order without the long tail of the candle and continue the trend movement in the direction of the breakout. Quotes may also fail to reach the take because of low liquidity or an incorrectly chosen level. However, in general, a false breakout is a profitable strategy and can be explained by the logic of the market.
So, the rules in brief:
- After the formation of a breakout level, which we consider to be false, we place a pending Sell Stop order slightly below the level that was broken through;
- We set a Stop Loss order for the maximum of a false breakout;
- Take Profit to the nearest opposite level.
For sell trades, everything is the same.
2. Waiting for a pullback to the key level.
The second method is more conservative, as it requires waiting for a false breakout signal. The tactics requires to wait not only for the quotes return after the price has passed the level, but also for the first correction. This pullback should confirm the resistance/support and breakout falsity.
Once this confirmation is obtained, the trader can enter using a pending order or the market, placing a stop loss after the breakout candlestick and take the order at the nearest support/resistance. The trading tactics in this case does not differ from the considered plan of actions in the first example.
Conclusion
The mechanism of a false-break involves the removal of stop-losses of most traders, which increases the probability of a rebound, i.e. the profit of the trader who caught the reversal. In this case, the first method, aggressive trading, is more justified.
As with any strategy, breakout trading requires the user to fine-tune the strategy by adding additional indicators, testing indents for placing pending orders, developing methods for determining resistance and support lines.
Predicting a false or true breakout is complicated by the fact that the currency rate takes into account everything. The release of news or any unforeseen events, or insider information can make big traders give up their intentions to reverse price or breakout levels.
In most cases currency rates behavior near important lines will show if the breakout is true or false. High volatility is associated with the actions of a large trader, who is "pushing through" the currency rate in order to gather stop-losses and reverse quotes. High volatility and large candles on the approach to the level is a sign of an upcoming false-break.
A true breakout is defined by low volatility, especially in case of a sharp transition to a sideways trend after a strong trend. The phenomenon of volatility narrowing before the resumption of a trend movement is described in details in the literature and in the strategies of various indicators.
False breakdouts usually occur when market volatility is low you will notice that the range of candles becomes small.
False Breakdown Trading Strategies
If we talk about the general approach to strategies for catching reversals from important levels, it is worth highlighting two tactical techniques.
1. Entry after the price returns beyond the key level
The first one is aggressive and the most efficient way to enter by pending order, which is executed after the candle closes behind the level. The break in the resistance level gives the opportunity to place the Sell Stop. The indent of the pending order may be larger or smaller depending on the pair type, timeframe and volatility.
The order will be triggered only upon reversal of prices. The trader should protect the trade with a stop loss, which is placed behind the maximum of a false breakout. Take Profit can be set at the closest support level if the situation with a false breakdown is considered in the growth of the currency market.
In case of the fall the trader places the Buy Stop order. The size of the stop loss is determined by the minimum of a false breakdown candle. After the rebound and the activation of the order, it is necessary to set a take profit at the nearest resistance.
The trader should understand that high volatility is able to activate the pending order without the long tail of the candle and continue the trend movement in the direction of the breakout. Quotes may also fail to reach the take because of low liquidity or an incorrectly chosen level. However, in general, a false breakout is a profitable strategy and can be explained by the logic of the market.
So, the rules in brief:
- After the formation of a breakout level, which we consider to be false, we place a pending Sell Stop order slightly below the level that was broken through;
- We set a Stop Loss order for the maximum of a false breakout;
- Take Profit to the nearest opposite level.
For sell trades, everything is the same.
2. Waiting for a pullback to the key level.
The second method is more conservative, as it requires waiting for a false breakout signal. The tactics requires to wait not only for the quotes return after the price has passed the level, but also for the first correction. This pullback should confirm the resistance/support and breakout falsity.
Once this confirmation is obtained, the trader can enter using a pending order or the market, placing a stop loss after the breakout candlestick and take the order at the nearest support/resistance. The trading tactics in this case does not differ from the considered plan of actions in the first example.
Conclusion
The mechanism of a false-break involves the removal of stop-losses of most traders, which increases the probability of a rebound, i.e. the profit of the trader who caught the reversal. In this case, the first method, aggressive trading, is more justified.
As with any strategy, breakout trading requires the user to fine-tune the strategy by adding additional indicators, testing indents for placing pending orders, developing methods for determining resistance and support lines.
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bit.ly/3spSQqC
🔻FREE Telegram channel🔻
t.me/DeGRAMChannel
🔻Contact for Paid SIGNALS🔻
t.me/DeGRAMForex