Currently the Dollar is ripper strong, and the Euro is really struggling.
The last bounce from a wave 3 completion was pretty weak, so I expect a wave 5 down soon.
I would expect some kind of an retrace upon hitting next green zone (wave III )
1.1500 is my next target I guess.
1.1250 by end of Summer still seems plausible.
1.0700 gap close may well happen by end of 2018.
I will update and fine tune the target ranges as I see developments.
Here is the previous plan, which is still mostly in effect for me, but EU looks even more bear that I expected at that time:
US might buy in the morning, but by mid week imo.
EU cutting through some solid support zones.
Next one below may or may not hold but should slow it down.
At a lousy 11.618? wow!
Notice how it stopped BEFORE the round 1.15000.
Instead, it was a Fib Resonance (a 1.618 ) that acted.
Now is time to look for a bounce, to short again!
EU news is uncertain (Italy), and USD is very strong.
But expecting a USD correction, EU breather, then onward and downward.
Maybe a bounce to the zone above and then down again? will be watching.
OR maybe it just belows through 1.1500 and keeps dropping? Fine by me, many shorts are still open :)
Keeps beating on support, like it wants to test 1.15000
Not a strong looking bounce, but maybe a choppy incline to start wave IV?
But I suspect might be short lived.
Some pretty strong resistance coming up just above.
Will definitely retrace a bit from there, question is whether it will turn back down
Not looking good
If that breaks, the 'retrace' might be start of 'return' to downtrend.
Still a lot of resistance above, but has been hit a couple times now...
That would be fine, as per my original plan a good bounce was expected.
But looking skiddish still, with a laborious wave 5 perhaps.
Broke resistance, and looks like a classic wave 3=3.618 to wave 5=5.618 move.
Still a bear here, but this bounce was part of my plan, so as long as it keeps doing what I was hoping for, I am happy.
We see a clear 5 wave impluse.
Interesting that it stopped at the Gap top, EXACTLY!
So it may well be time to resume down trend after gap confirmation.
But this retrace could go higher, perhaps something like this to test 1.1800
News out of Italy is whipsawing this, but notice the Fib zones are still in control.
Close up, looks like target 1.18033 (give or take a 1/10 of pip) :)
Hit the 4.618 of local fib, very close 3.618 of larger Fib.
I am thinking consolidation in this zone for a bit, then continue downtrend exactly per the original plan.
That was to account for possible stop hunt above 1.1800
Asia already passed ast 1.1800 ever so slightly but no spike of stops.
And the EURO looks to have a pretty good head of steam.
ie: I am not so confident wave IV will end here, but watching with interest.
But maybe that was the stop-sweep spike I was looking for.
Obeying the fibs, but the drop is NOT looking powerful, so might be just profit taking before further rise. Watching closely.
See chart for clues gathered from the same fib drawn in last pic.
Perhaps was a stop run before London Open, or maybe just a dead cat bounce right now?
It reached a whole bunch of 618's, all extensions of pulses up.
You just cant walk past that many 618's without retreating some.
The bounce shows some strength as it came back to the 2.618 almost.
I am thinking maybe Monday it will test the 2.618.
It fell to where I expected, then bounce to where I expected.
Now it LOOKS to be turning back down with several bearish daily candles.
BUT, I would not be surprised to see an ABC wave shooting up to the Red Zone (1.1906 - 1.1933) before turning back down.
Big ECB news this week, so I think the big movement will wait until then.
But the in the meantime I will keep updating my scalps on ny other EU ideas.
Looks like next target is on the table now.
Stops jambed at break even on new shorts, hoping they survive long enough to take some profits and rest ride along.
Notice the picture perfect .618 retrace/rejection.
That rejection was quite strong, so a .382 extension to 1.1375 is almost assured.
This is a LOT of support at 1.1500, but it was previously tested/weakened.
If 1.1500 breaks, the next STRONG support is 1.11000
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If long term, and willing to risk a 100pip loss, I would enter short right now. If short term and looking for 30pip stop or less, I would wait for retest of the larger fibs then short....