The second run to parity has been successful ( and profitable XD ).
The Grand Elliott Impulse has reach a level where it's full potential COULD BE complete.
Wave5 revealed itself to be an extension and has also reached a level that it's potential COULD BE complete.
This is a DANGEROUS point.
Both Wave5 and the overall Impulse are in the "zone of completion":
Wave5 as an impulse of it's own is at: (1) the 1-3 0.618-level; (2) 4-3 1.618-level.
GEI overall is at: (1) 1-3 1.272-level; (2) shows not unexpected signs of resistant at the 4-3 1.618-level
GEI movement has hit the lower pitchfork warning range (0.382-level) this typically results in exhaustion.
Given the current GLOBAL economic climate, the strength of the USD is actually painful for other economies (re: Sri Lanka) and will lead to a LARGER US trade deficit (re: entire world, China). The Fed increasing rates aggressively will force other nations to do the same (aggressively or not). All this combined is likely to lead to a bullish-bias in the coming 2-3 wks.
One month ago I said the pair has returned to its decline. I now believe ( not confirmed ) that this pair is at the end of that run. I think (1) the successful push to parity has exhausted shorts and they need a breather from the epic freefall, (2) the strength of the dollar is causing global economic hardship, and (3) global economic conditions are primed for a significant recovery period.
BUT (there's always a but) caution is HIGHLY ADVISED ...
There is room for downward fluctuations ( I really think 0.9998 is the bottom), but I believe in the overall scheme of things (note, this is a 5D chart) that movement is limited. (Seriously, I can't generate a scenario where this goes further than it has. Then there is the psychological barrier that 1:1 parity just is. That was breached; I don't think anyone wants go there again ... yet.)
What do y'all think?
(NOTE: Some will say my time line is questionable or "you can't predict price in Jan 2023." (Yes, I've been accused of this kind of prediction.) If you interpret the dates on the chart as temporal predictions that's because you're not listening. I haven't provided any dates. Future dates are charting artifacts, they mean NOTHING.)
My VERY LONGTERM forecast is the 1234's:
We've hit bottom (or VERY near bottom, but really have bottomed).
Price will (eventually) recover (1) initially to 1.10-ish, or push slightly further to 1.13. (This would be the A-wave of a correction.) Potential exists that a strong surge (dollar weakening) could hit 1.19-1.21; though I think this unlikely until a correction wave balances movement.
If we see a rebound at 1.10-1.13, I'd prefer a pause at (2) 1.018-ish (yellow dotted) before my preferred bounce at (3) 1.035-ish (That'd be the B-wave), and then higher to 1.19-1.20 (The C-wave.)
If we blow through 1.035 (3), hang on to your hats.
Personally, I think 1.05-1.10 is a sweet spot for both currencies. USD is not weak against EUR but maintains it's command as reserve currency & makes US products sufficiently inexpensive (re: sub-parity, <1:1 EURUSD) & encourages a more favorable trade (still net negative (we're a service, not goods, economy) for US.
The Grand Elliott Impulse has reach a level where it's full potential COULD BE complete.
Wave5 revealed itself to be an extension and has also reached a level that it's potential COULD BE complete.
This is a DANGEROUS point.
Both Wave5 and the overall Impulse are in the "zone of completion":
Wave5 as an impulse of it's own is at: (1) the 1-3 0.618-level; (2) 4-3 1.618-level.
GEI overall is at: (1) 1-3 1.272-level; (2) shows not unexpected signs of resistant at the 4-3 1.618-level
GEI movement has hit the lower pitchfork warning range (0.382-level) this typically results in exhaustion.
Given the current GLOBAL economic climate, the strength of the USD is actually painful for other economies (re: Sri Lanka) and will lead to a LARGER US trade deficit (re: entire world, China). The Fed increasing rates aggressively will force other nations to do the same (aggressively or not). All this combined is likely to lead to a bullish-bias in the coming 2-3 wks.
One month ago I said the pair has returned to its decline. I now believe ( not confirmed ) that this pair is at the end of that run. I think (1) the successful push to parity has exhausted shorts and they need a breather from the epic freefall, (2) the strength of the dollar is causing global economic hardship, and (3) global economic conditions are primed for a significant recovery period.
BUT (there's always a but) caution is HIGHLY ADVISED ...
There is room for downward fluctuations ( I really think 0.9998 is the bottom), but I believe in the overall scheme of things (note, this is a 5D chart) that movement is limited. (Seriously, I can't generate a scenario where this goes further than it has. Then there is the psychological barrier that 1:1 parity just is. That was breached; I don't think anyone wants go there again ... yet.)
What do y'all think?
(NOTE: Some will say my time line is questionable or "you can't predict price in Jan 2023." (Yes, I've been accused of this kind of prediction.) If you interpret the dates on the chart as temporal predictions that's because you're not listening. I haven't provided any dates. Future dates are charting artifacts, they mean NOTHING.)
My VERY LONGTERM forecast is the 1234's:
We've hit bottom (or VERY near bottom, but really have bottomed).
Price will (eventually) recover (1) initially to 1.10-ish, or push slightly further to 1.13. (This would be the A-wave of a correction.) Potential exists that a strong surge (dollar weakening) could hit 1.19-1.21; though I think this unlikely until a correction wave balances movement.
If we see a rebound at 1.10-1.13, I'd prefer a pause at (2) 1.018-ish (yellow dotted) before my preferred bounce at (3) 1.035-ish (That'd be the B-wave), and then higher to 1.19-1.20 (The C-wave.)
If we blow through 1.035 (3), hang on to your hats.
Personally, I think 1.05-1.10 is a sweet spot for both currencies. USD is not weak against EUR but maintains it's command as reserve currency & makes US products sufficiently inexpensive (re: sub-parity, <1:1 EURUSD) & encourages a more favorable trade (still net negative (we're a service, not goods, economy) for US.
