Tehran and Beijing are making plans around the revived silk road. And in just a short 3-4 months the world will discuss the new world order.
3 main groups: the bagholding UN liberals from 1945 (Canada, France, Germany), Trump USA leaving the WHO and the UN, and China that wants to be at the center.
A more reasonable in between group that would satisfy both China and Europe liberals sees the world existing around free trade between China & Europe (and the middle east), so this would include the silk road China is working on. Oh and China better work on that trade route because the USA don't want to be a net importer anymore, both sides actually:
- The patriots want jobs to be in America and make America a net exporter again.
- The liberal-socialists want to end inequality, which comes from being a net importer & open to China regardless of them not understanding it.
The middle east & north africa recently had some revolutions against conservatives, I think they are changing. Plus Oil prices... For example there is only a few months left before Algeria runs out of savings and starves to death. Alot of young Iranians are hating the primitive conservative era their country is into. The region getting civilized will give a big boost to the silk road and let Europe & China to continue neo-liberalism (ah yes, China is officially communist right, definitely not state capitalism and neo-liberalism in sez), with the USA devolving into either religious conservatism & patriotism OR wokeness which is even worse.
I can easilly see the world revolving around Europe - Middle East - China. "Secondary" major players will be India but they have their issues, SEA nations, South America, North America, Black Africa (maybe divide it in 3). A big Europe - Middle East - China centered world makes alot of sense.
The Euro, the ??? Dinar ???, Yuan, and gold. It will take a while for the USD to go away thought. 3 major fiat, gold, and a few "exotic" pairs. That would make sense. Man I don't want to wait 20 years :'( I want to trade those pairs now. I wish I could fast forward without aging.
So anyway, I think it's a perfect time to take a look at the silk road. I can't just make a 15000 lines idea so I'll just be scratching the surface here.
Christians started as somewhat civilized, and ridiculed pagans as primitives with "illogical supersticious rituals" to gain more followers.
In their early days they banned witch hunting calling it a stupid superstition but did that escalate quickly, a few hundred years later they were burning middle aged women hand over fist.
Muslims also started as civilized, they gave alot of importance to trade/finance/mercantilism and knowledge, cartographers mathematicians astronomers etc would have salaries that ressemble what modern athletes are getting. And then zealous conservatives took over and recently a 14 yo girl tried running away from her toxic family with a 32 yo bloke so her primitive dad straight up chopped her head off "for honor".
Going from mudhuts to civilization and the other way around can happen at such a speed it is scary.
In the 60s and 70s the Shah of Iran quickly turned the country from prehistory to a rich top world economy.
And then the religious conservative socialists complained that it was greed and hlam and bla bla bla and Iran invented time travel: want to see the middle ages? Take a plane to Tehran.
I know it is a little childish to call it mudhut :D
But hey there is not a single term for it, sometimes it is refered to as "Bronze age" sometimes as "a decline" sometimes "the middle ages" but it's always the same thing really.
Primitive superstitious mudhut dwellers that are bad for business.
First of all the entire middle east, north africa, and the area east of the middle east is populated by the same caucasians "whites" with very little genetic variation.
They think they are better than each other due to low IQ but they're just the same, same psychology, same civilization cycles, same laws and so on.
One of their traits, that every one hates them for, is being very expansionists. Colonisation, crusades, jihads (by the arms or by the words)...
Black Africa (to be divided between nilotic people, gold coast africans, and bantus in the center & south) behaves differently, and China/SEA also has a slightly different behavior. I know that black africa is going to run into problems, they have overmultiplicated with the support of European food in the last decades. They used to be a few millions, now they're 1 billion and totally reliant on foreign food, and they are not stopping reproducing. Europe won't be able to keep feeding them forever nor taking in hundreds of millions of colons. Big big problem ahead.
India is complicated and speaking about their demographics is taboo (denial).
So all of this really applies to Europeans & Muslims, I would not try to copy paste to the rest, and I do not know that much about their history & culture so I stick to what I know...
Talking about Black Africa, I think the sahara trade route is being revived (without the slaves - wait no actually with the slaves thx Obama & Hillary).
Hillary jokingly said "we came we saw he died". Lybia has a population of 6 million, this is why you cannot be small & ultra-nationalist & isolated in the present day. You'll just get walked all over by some Hillary that will then laugh at how easy it was.
A very summed up version of the "white world" which is all I know of:
10000 BC: First human agriculture & futures contracts in the Iraq area
3000 BC - 300 BC: Civilizations (~2500 years) In the middle east (incl Iran & Egypt), and a bit the adjacent North Africa & Greece.
300 BC - 500 BC: Civilization in Europe. Mudhuts in Middle East+.
500 BC - 1500 AD: Civilization in Middle East +.
1500 AD - 2000: Civilization in Europe. Decline & MudHuts in Middle East+.
Looking at history, there is 1 thing I know about China it is that they never were a rich country, they always were at a GDP/capita of around the world average.
During (and following) their cultural revolution, when young chinese people that are not naive and can think for themselves peacefully protested, mainland China skyrocketed to the poorest country in the world, and after that thing ended and it started to recover of course it had some extreme growth. People think it will continue. The average was just pulling China like a magnet, of course they had rapid growth since they started so far away as poorest in the world.
Momo investors think this is physics and it will continue. Sorry but no. Mainland China has never been a rich country in 10000 years so I am not expecting this to change. Probabilities are on my side here. Their growth is already slowing down (even if you adjust for inflation) and their USD bags getting heavy.
Know what happened to the peaceful urban student protestors? Mao sent them to the country side to "learn what real work is" (sending dangerous revolutionaries far from him after they filled their purpose). The protestors decades later whined that their future was stolen from them. Gullible pawns.
I respect Japan & the 4 tigers but I think I'll just focus on what I know actually: Europeans (and offshoots Australia etc), and "Muslims".
Africa has growth potential but those 6 children per women & food issues are going to lead to -100% growth. I'll pass probably.
Nilote countries (Kenya Uganda etc), Nigeria, Ghana, might become self sufficient and developped, but they'll just get overwhelmed by infinite extreme poor migrants from Cameroon Congo etc, and if they build walls the international community will call them nazis and frown, check mate they are doomed either way. I will pass unless there is a major event that changes everything.
We only know little about history, a fraction of it. But that fraction is absolutely massive for a single lifetime, history does repeat itself, and there is so much we can learn.
Someone that knows a little about the world, both present day and past, has a huge edge compared to those that are ignorant (and 99% of the time are delusional and think something will last forever).
One has to understand knowledge, not learn it by heart, here I would be careful. Remember the biggest most cluseless group of clueless idiots is university professors of economics.
If you want to learn more about the modern day silk road you could start searching for "AIIB and one belt one road".
3 main groups: the bagholding UN liberals from 1945 (Canada, France, Germany), Trump USA leaving the WHO and the UN, and China that wants to be at the center.
A more reasonable in between group that would satisfy both China and Europe liberals sees the world existing around free trade between China & Europe (and the middle east), so this would include the silk road China is working on. Oh and China better work on that trade route because the USA don't want to be a net importer anymore, both sides actually:
- The patriots want jobs to be in America and make America a net exporter again.
- The liberal-socialists want to end inequality, which comes from being a net importer & open to China regardless of them not understanding it.
The middle east & north africa recently had some revolutions against conservatives, I think they are changing. Plus Oil prices... For example there is only a few months left before Algeria runs out of savings and starves to death. Alot of young Iranians are hating the primitive conservative era their country is into. The region getting civilized will give a big boost to the silk road and let Europe & China to continue neo-liberalism (ah yes, China is officially communist right, definitely not state capitalism and neo-liberalism in sez), with the USA devolving into either religious conservatism & patriotism OR wokeness which is even worse.
I can easilly see the world revolving around Europe - Middle East - China. "Secondary" major players will be India but they have their issues, SEA nations, South America, North America, Black Africa (maybe divide it in 3). A big Europe - Middle East - China centered world makes alot of sense.
The Euro, the ??? Dinar ???, Yuan, and gold. It will take a while for the USD to go away thought. 3 major fiat, gold, and a few "exotic" pairs. That would make sense. Man I don't want to wait 20 years :'( I want to trade those pairs now. I wish I could fast forward without aging.
So anyway, I think it's a perfect time to take a look at the silk road. I can't just make a 15000 lines idea so I'll just be scratching the surface here.
Christians started as somewhat civilized, and ridiculed pagans as primitives with "illogical supersticious rituals" to gain more followers.
In their early days they banned witch hunting calling it a stupid superstition but did that escalate quickly, a few hundred years later they were burning middle aged women hand over fist.
Muslims also started as civilized, they gave alot of importance to trade/finance/mercantilism and knowledge, cartographers mathematicians astronomers etc would have salaries that ressemble what modern athletes are getting. And then zealous conservatives took over and recently a 14 yo girl tried running away from her toxic family with a 32 yo bloke so her primitive dad straight up chopped her head off "for honor".
Going from mudhuts to civilization and the other way around can happen at such a speed it is scary.
In the 60s and 70s the Shah of Iran quickly turned the country from prehistory to a rich top world economy.
And then the religious conservative socialists complained that it was greed and hlam and bla bla bla and Iran invented time travel: want to see the middle ages? Take a plane to Tehran.
I know it is a little childish to call it mudhut :D
But hey there is not a single term for it, sometimes it is refered to as "Bronze age" sometimes as "a decline" sometimes "the middle ages" but it's always the same thing really.
Primitive superstitious mudhut dwellers that are bad for business.
First of all the entire middle east, north africa, and the area east of the middle east is populated by the same caucasians "whites" with very little genetic variation.
They think they are better than each other due to low IQ but they're just the same, same psychology, same civilization cycles, same laws and so on.
One of their traits, that every one hates them for, is being very expansionists. Colonisation, crusades, jihads (by the arms or by the words)...
Black Africa (to be divided between nilotic people, gold coast africans, and bantus in the center & south) behaves differently, and China/SEA also has a slightly different behavior. I know that black africa is going to run into problems, they have overmultiplicated with the support of European food in the last decades. They used to be a few millions, now they're 1 billion and totally reliant on foreign food, and they are not stopping reproducing. Europe won't be able to keep feeding them forever nor taking in hundreds of millions of colons. Big big problem ahead.
India is complicated and speaking about their demographics is taboo (denial).
So all of this really applies to Europeans & Muslims, I would not try to copy paste to the rest, and I do not know that much about their history & culture so I stick to what I know...
Talking about Black Africa, I think the sahara trade route is being revived (without the slaves - wait no actually with the slaves thx Obama & Hillary).
Hillary jokingly said "we came we saw he died". Lybia has a population of 6 million, this is why you cannot be small & ultra-nationalist & isolated in the present day. You'll just get walked all over by some Hillary that will then laugh at how easy it was.
A very summed up version of the "white world" which is all I know of:
10000 BC: First human agriculture & futures contracts in the Iraq area
3000 BC - 300 BC: Civilizations (~2500 years) In the middle east (incl Iran & Egypt), and a bit the adjacent North Africa & Greece.
300 BC - 500 BC: Civilization in Europe. Mudhuts in Middle East+.
500 BC - 1500 AD: Civilization in Middle East +.
1500 AD - 2000: Civilization in Europe. Decline & MudHuts in Middle East+.
Looking at history, there is 1 thing I know about China it is that they never were a rich country, they always were at a GDP/capita of around the world average.
During (and following) their cultural revolution, when young chinese people that are not naive and can think for themselves peacefully protested, mainland China skyrocketed to the poorest country in the world, and after that thing ended and it started to recover of course it had some extreme growth. People think it will continue. The average was just pulling China like a magnet, of course they had rapid growth since they started so far away as poorest in the world.
Momo investors think this is physics and it will continue. Sorry but no. Mainland China has never been a rich country in 10000 years so I am not expecting this to change. Probabilities are on my side here. Their growth is already slowing down (even if you adjust for inflation) and their USD bags getting heavy.
Know what happened to the peaceful urban student protestors? Mao sent them to the country side to "learn what real work is" (sending dangerous revolutionaries far from him after they filled their purpose). The protestors decades later whined that their future was stolen from them. Gullible pawns.
I respect Japan & the 4 tigers but I think I'll just focus on what I know actually: Europeans (and offshoots Australia etc), and "Muslims".
Africa has growth potential but those 6 children per women & food issues are going to lead to -100% growth. I'll pass probably.
Nilote countries (Kenya Uganda etc), Nigeria, Ghana, might become self sufficient and developped, but they'll just get overwhelmed by infinite extreme poor migrants from Cameroon Congo etc, and if they build walls the international community will call them nazis and frown, check mate they are doomed either way. I will pass unless there is a major event that changes everything.
We only know little about history, a fraction of it. But that fraction is absolutely massive for a single lifetime, history does repeat itself, and there is so much we can learn.
Someone that knows a little about the world, both present day and past, has a huge edge compared to those that are ignorant (and 99% of the time are delusional and think something will last forever).
One has to understand knowledge, not learn it by heart, here I would be careful. Remember the biggest most cluseless group of clueless idiots is university professors of economics.
If you want to learn more about the modern day silk road you could start searching for "AIIB and one belt one road".