Risk aversion has been supporting the euro
this week (carry trade affected) in a similar manner to what we saw in August 2015, albeit with less volatility
so far. EURUSD
has risen so much this week, the market seems poised to test the bearish trendline
under which we witnessed a sharp selloff in October. This trendline
, as well as the 200-DMA are found at $1.1160/80. It'll be interesting to see what happens at this level. If the market keeps rising without any brief pause before hitting this resistance, I would expect there to be some euro
weakness following that test. Fundamentals (Fed!) will definitely determine whether or not this trendline
is eventually breached. I will update as technicals/fundamentals develop more.