GregorThe4th

EURUSD Long Term Analysis

Short
OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
○ Monthly Timeframe

Bearish Choch. Price retraced towards the inefficiencies and Order Block just lying above the Institutional Price level of 1.12000
Price mitigated the Bearish order block in july of 2023.

○ Weekly Timeframe

We can see price mitigate the Monthly Timeframe Order Block and rejecting this zone on the weekly. the institutional price level of 1.12000 is mitigated and price rejected the whole order block zone.
Next we see the price break the low and create a bearish choch. Liquidity grab happened before that, so it is considered a valid bearish move.


○ Daily Timeframe

When Price created the Bearish Choch. it automatically created new Points Of Interest on the opposite side of the dealing range.
We have a weekly Liquidity Inefficiency and we had a Bearish Order Block refined on the 1Dtf.
The Weekly Inefficiency got mitigated and respected on the weekly Timeframe (Where it was created), on the daily timeframe the Inefficiency was rejected by wicks... the bodies of the candles respected the 1W inefficiency completely.
Rejection was there on the 1Wtf too.

When the Mitigation of the 1W inefficiency was a fact, it swept the previous high which can be seen as a Bullish BOS or a newly created Liquidity grab when price breaks the low that cause price movements that eventually broke the structure upwards.
After some weeks the low got broken and the Choch occured.
We had a not-too-fast movement for breaking the low. the momentum wasn't there. This indicates that price will not easily make a correction to the upside to mitigate for example an Order Block.

When going to the lower timeframe we can start to look for POI's where we can enter off of our positions and look for potential Short Setups.

○ 4H And Lower Timeframe

On the 4Htf we can see that price made an extreme bearish movement on the 2nd of February. with the unemployment rates being released that day.
Price then kept going down and made Choch Bearish.

Now when price comes up to the 1.08000 Institutional Price Level. We'll be close to the 4H High and could break structure bullish, when this happens I'd expect price to make a correction towards the 1.08800 Institutional Price Level Where a 4H Bearish Order Block lies.

○ 1H Timeframe

I see that price swept the sellside liquidity before creating a Choch to the upside.

On the 30Mtf there's a bullish Order Block visible. Price could rally up towards the institutional 1.08000 price level.
when testing that zone it'll reject the 4H High by sweeping it or It'll Break through it and go for the before mentioned 1.08800 Price level in the 4Hourly Order Block.
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