EURUSD
Current trend
The EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend around 1.0212.
Since the beginning of the week, the European currency has been trading with low volatility, but the situation may change today after the publication of data on consumer prices in two large EU economies – Germany and Italy. According to analysts, German inflation may increase by 0.9% MoM and slow down to 7.5% YoY from 7.6% earlier. In the Italian economy, a similar situation is observed: the rate is expected at 0.4% MoM and 7.9% YoY instead of 8.0% in June. These forecasts are in line with the opinion of experts, as the European Central Bank (ECB) adjusted the parameters of monetary policy, initiating an increase in interest rates, which could lead to short-term pressure on inflation.
Experts assess the situation in the US differently. CPI will be released today, and analysts expect inflation to fall sharply to 8.7% from 9.1%. The only factor in its favor is an 8–10% MoM petrol price cut. At the same time, labor productivity remains in the negative zone, amounting to –4.6% in the second quarter, which confirms the difficult situation in the national economy.
Support and resistance
The trading instrument is kept within the global downward channel, having slowed down its advance towards the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a poor sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator confidently approach the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars.
Resistance levels: 1.0262, 1.0489.
Support levels: 1.0163, 0.9955.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.0262, with the target around 1.0489. Stop loss – 1.0200. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after a reversal, reduction, and consolidation of the price below 1.0163 with the target at 0.9955. Stop loss – 1.0200.
