Doji-2k1

Will EURUSD Rally or Drop?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Talking points

  • EURUSD may face range-bound conditions ahead of the Fed rate decision as market participants wait for the fresh forecast from Fed officials.
  • The price bullish closed in the bearish half a bat pattern after failing to trigger a bearish signal. According to IG, 60% of trader are net short.

Fundamental Forecast

EURUSD is in a consolidation that's clearing the opening range for September as it holds above the yearly low (0.9864). This pair has been falling as the economic growth outlook for the eurozone continues to deteriorate in the face of the Russian gas shutdown. Inflation has been rising across the region, while the European Central Bank has been slow off the mark to raise rates. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates quicker and more aggressively. Therefore, the direction of the euro could depend on whether the gap between economic growth and interest rates in the US and Europe continues to widen.

Technical Forecast

The last price closed in the bearish half a bat patterns 1st level after bouncing off the 2nd Daily Key Lvl to closing in between the short-term moving averages. If you look closely, you'll see a small bullish half a bat pattern (right on the left) that has its neckline form part of the Mini Daily Neckline 2. That is the first signal key level that will produce a bullish uptrend to the Daily Half a Bat Neckline 2 and 50 moving average after the price has bullish broke and retested it right away or after forming another bullish reversal pattern. When the price reaches the key levels and bullish breaks and retests them, that will trigger a signal that will fully confirm the monthly counter-trend. On the other hand, if the price bearish breaks and closes/retests below the 2nd Daily Key Lvl, we'll see a small bearish head and shoulder pattern forming in the main bearish half a bat pattern. The mini head and shoulder pattern will be confirm the half a bat pattern bearish signal and upcoming 2 level trend that will likely end on the monthly's target. Those are three possible scenarios that can lead to a rally or drop

Food For Thought

A crucial step to take in your journey to becoming a professional trader is discovering your beliefs about the market so that your system will fit those beliefs. You must know yourself well enough to develop your personal objectives and a system that fits those objectives. And you must work on your system until you are comfortable trading it. You must know your criteria for comfort. Most people have many biases against doing it well. To overcome those biases, most people need to take some steps in their personal development.

That's it for today, I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts!

Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.

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Be warned

This info isn't a recommendation for what you should personally do, so please don't take the data as investment advice. As with any trade, always look first, then leap.

Disclaimer

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