After the Major spike in EURUSD last week, it's starting to pullback in a Bull Flag fashion. This usually means a breakout in the direction of current Momentum, in this case Bullish . Price is also working on completing an ABCD Pattern on the 30 min Chart. Zooming in on a Lower Time Frame (LTF) I can see that it's in a small Balance Area. I will look to be trading the Balance Area Breakout in either direction.
Entry - Break & Close out of Balance Area
Stops - 1 ATR Above/Below the Breakout Bar
Target #1 - Measured Move of the Balance Area
Target #2 - Either the 38.2% Retracement or the 1.618% Fib Extension, depends which way it goes (Targets are shown on the Chart).
Upside Scenario:
Given the Bull Flag we are carving out on the Higher Time Frame ( HTF ), I would have to assume that we will breakout of the Balance to the upside, BUT I have no idea for certain and I will NOT involve myself with this trade until I see the break and close out of the balance area per my rules. You can also adjust Target #2's to the upper side of the Bull Flag Trendline OR you can hold to your 2nd half of your position in anticipation that we Breakout of the HTF Bull Flag . This play would be less of a probability, however, the Reward would be excellent. Trade Target #2's however your rules in your plan tell you to trade so you are not trading off emotion.
Downside Scenario:
I think the downside Breakdown is less likely to happen given the context of the market and where we are, BUT you never know! If we breakdown, Target #1's line up nicely with an ABCD Pattern on the 30min Chart and also a 1.27 fib ext (not shown on chart, trying to keep the chart clean ;)). Target #2's will be the 1.618 ext which also lines up very nicely with another smaller ABCD Pattern .
Entry - Break & Close out of Balance Area
Stops - 1 ATR Above/Below the Breakout Bar
Target #1 - Measured Move of the Balance Area
Target #2 - Either the 38.2% Retracement or the 1.618% Fib Extension, depends which way it goes (Targets are shown on the Chart).
Upside Scenario:
Given the Bull Flag we are carving out on the Higher Time Frame ( HTF ), I would have to assume that we will breakout of the Balance to the upside, BUT I have no idea for certain and I will NOT involve myself with this trade until I see the break and close out of the balance area per my rules. You can also adjust Target #2's to the upper side of the Bull Flag Trendline OR you can hold to your 2nd half of your position in anticipation that we Breakout of the HTF Bull Flag . This play would be less of a probability, however, the Reward would be excellent. Trade Target #2's however your rules in your plan tell you to trade so you are not trading off emotion.
Downside Scenario:
I think the downside Breakdown is less likely to happen given the context of the market and where we are, BUT you never know! If we breakdown, Target #1's line up nicely with an ABCD Pattern on the 30min Chart and also a 1.27 fib ext (not shown on chart, trying to keep the chart clean ;)). Target #2's will be the 1.618 ext which also lines up very nicely with another smaller ABCD Pattern .
Comment:
Target #1 Hit.. Stops are at Breakeven
Trade closed: target reached:
Trade Closed. Both Targets were hit.