After the Major spike in EURUSD last week, it's starting to pullback in a Bull Flag fashion. This usually means a breakout in the direction of current Momentum, in this case Bullish. Price is also working on completing an ABCD Pattern on the 30 min Chart. Zooming in on a Lower Time Frame (LTF) I can see that it's in a small Balance Area. I will look to be trading the Balance Area Breakout in either direction.
Entry - Break & Close out of Balance Area
Stops - 1 ATR Above/Below the Breakout Bar
Target #1 - Measured Move of the Balance Area
Target #2 - Either the 38.2% Retracement or the 1.618% Fib Extension, depends which way it goes (Targets are shown on the Chart).
Upside Scenario:
Given the Bull Flag we are carving out on the Higher Time Frame (HTF), I would have to assume that we will breakout of the Balance to the upside, BUT I have no idea for certain and I will NOT involve myself with this trade until I see the break and close out of the balance area per my rules. You can also adjust Target #2's to the upper side of the Bull Flag Trendline OR you can hold to your 2nd half of your position in anticipation that we Breakout of the HTF Bull Flag. This play would be less of a probability, however, the Reward would be excellent. Trade Target #2's however your rules in your plan tell you to trade so you are not trading off emotion.
Downside Scenario:
I think the downside Breakdown is less likely to happen given the context of the market and where we are, BUT you never know! If we breakdown, Target #1's line up nicely with an ABCD Pattern on the 30min Chart and also a 1.27 fib ext (not shown on chart, trying to keep the chart clean ;)). Target #2's will be the 1.618 ext which also lines up very nicely with another smaller ABCD Pattern.
Entry - Break & Close out of Balance Area
Stops - 1 ATR Above/Below the Breakout Bar
Target #1 - Measured Move of the Balance Area
Target #2 - Either the 38.2% Retracement or the 1.618% Fib Extension, depends which way it goes (Targets are shown on the Chart).
Upside Scenario:
Given the Bull Flag we are carving out on the Higher Time Frame (HTF), I would have to assume that we will breakout of the Balance to the upside, BUT I have no idea for certain and I will NOT involve myself with this trade until I see the break and close out of the balance area per my rules. You can also adjust Target #2's to the upper side of the Bull Flag Trendline OR you can hold to your 2nd half of your position in anticipation that we Breakout of the HTF Bull Flag. This play would be less of a probability, however, the Reward would be excellent. Trade Target #2's however your rules in your plan tell you to trade so you are not trading off emotion.
Downside Scenario:
I think the downside Breakdown is less likely to happen given the context of the market and where we are, BUT you never know! If we breakdown, Target #1's line up nicely with an ABCD Pattern on the 30min Chart and also a 1.27 fib ext (not shown on chart, trying to keep the chart clean ;)). Target #2's will be the 1.618 ext which also lines up very nicely with another smaller ABCD Pattern.
Comment:
Target #1 Hit.. Stops are at Breakeven
Trade closed: target reached:
Trade Closed. Both Targets were hit.