WEEKLY CHART - Updating The Weekly Chart I Posted 28 Days Ago: Contracting Triangle Looking More Likely
This is the weekly chart I posted 28 days ago before prices spiked up.....
Here it is now updated with the latest price action. In the weekly view, you can clearly see that the recent spike and subsequent retreat in prices is showing as being contained within the triangle and has NOT broken it (closed above).
Contracting Triangle Completion Scenario
Here, I cleaned up the chart to show only the contracting ....
DAILY CHART - A Completed Targeting 1.00000 Level
A has been completed at the recent spike highs which was a E point "overthrow" and a subsequent deep retrace back under the upper of the . This is of course price action. Notice that the target line for the is almost targeting exactly at the 1.00000 price level. A very psychologically significant level.
I have also re-labeled this completed as a 3-3-5 flat wave as a possible end to the larger wave (4) corrective wave with the current decline in prices as the start of the final wave (5) of the MAJOR DOWNTREND.
4HR CHART - Two Scenarios As To How Prices May Unfold In The Near-Term Going Down
There are 2 ways that I see the current price action unfolding although both have the same result in the end:
Scenario #1 - A POSSIBLE POTENTIAL Crab
Prices will rise from its' current level back up to retest the upper of the (and triangle. After hitting that upper , prices will then fall. There is a POSSIBLE POTENTIAL here with its' B point marking the possible end of the wave 1 of the wave (5) and its C point yet to be established. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the can still be completed.
Scenario #2 - Completing The Triangle + A POSSIBLE POTENTIAL DEEP Crab
Obviously, the difference here is that prices will continue to decline more in possibly completing wave 1 of wave (5) right down to the lower of the triangle and then bounce back up from there to retest the upper of the in a wave 2 of (5). This would establish the B point of the right near that triangle's lower ascending .
CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
With the recent price action, what I showed here could be the coming price action. There is not telling that I would be correct in this and subsequent price action could prove me completely wrong. However, a continued decline in prices CANNOT be ruled out and if so, this is how I see it happening.
I will wait for prices to retest the upper of the triangle (and ) before deciding to take any action. When it does and I see price action, then I will SHORT this pair for a ride down in a wave (5) and heading to the 1.00000 level. For now, I am just watching and waiting.....
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Then again, this is all just one man's opinion and the market could prove me entirely wrong! It's happened before and will happen again..and again...and again...! Good luck!
Yes, there is a flag forming but it's not a very good flag, IMO. Still, there looks to be one more move down in EUR as well. As I state in my analysis, for me a good time to sell will be when I see bearish price action if/when prices move up and meet the upper trend line of the triangle OR if/when it moves down and meets the lower trend line of the triangle, consolidates there and shows more bearish price action. Both places would be good selling points. But in both cases, must be patient and watch the price action first! Don't jump the gun and just sell just because it reached the trend lines. Good luck!
And sorry again for the mistaken comment!