ANALYSIS #1: EURUSD: BEARISH In Downtrend But How Far Will Go?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
1657 22 26
Last 2 weeks, we saw this pair shoot up higher, breaking the triangle pattern and looking very bullish only to have it completely retrace back down from that spike high back into the triangle and stay there. Not even the NFP moved it. So what does this kind of price action tell us? Let's dive into this pair and see.....

WEEKLY CHART - Updating The Weekly Chart I Posted 28 Days Ago: Contracting Triangle Looking More Likely
This is the weekly chart I posted 28 days ago before prices spiked up.....
Here it is now updated with the latest price action. In the weekly view, you can clearly see that the recent spike and subsequent retreat in prices is showing as being contained within the triangle and has NOT broken it (closed above).
Contracting Triangle Completion Scenario
Here, I cleaned up the chart to show only the contracting triangle pattern ....

DAILY CHART - A Completed Wolfe Wave Targeting 1.00000 Level
A Wolfe Wave has been completed at the recent spike highs which was a E point "overthrow" and a subsequent deep retrace back under the upper trend line of the Wolfe Wave . This is of course bearish price action. Notice that the target line for the Wolfe Wave is almost targeting exactly at the 1.00000 price level. A very psychologically significant level.

I have also re-labeled this completed Wolfe Wave as a 3-3-5 flat wave as a possible end to the larger wave (4) corrective wave with the current decline in prices as the start of the final wave (5) of the MAJOR DOWNTREND.

4HR CHART - Two Scenarios As To How Prices May Unfold In The Near-Term Going Down
There are 2 ways that I see the current price action unfolding although both have the same result in the end:
Scenario #1 - A POSSIBLE POTENTIAL Bullish Crab
Prices will rise from its' current level back up to retest the upper trend line of the Wolfe Wave (and triangle. After hitting that upper trend line , prices will then fall. There is a POSSIBLE POTENTIAL Bullish crab here with its' B point marking the possible end of the wave 1 of the wave (5) and its C point yet to be established. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the triangle pattern can still be completed.
Scenario #2 - Completing The Triangle + A POSSIBLE POTENTIAL Bullish DEEP Crab
Obviously, the difference here is that prices will continue to decline more in possibly completing wave 1 of wave (5) right down to the lower trend line of the triangle and then bounce back up from there to retest the upper trend line of the Wolfe Wave in a wave 2 of (5). This would establish the B point of the DEEP crab right near that triangle's lower ascending trend line .

With the recent bearish price action, what I showed here could be the coming price action. There is not telling that I would be correct in this and subsequent price action could prove me completely wrong. However, a continued decline in prices CANNOT be ruled out and if so, this is how I see it happening.

I will wait for prices to retest the upper trend line of the triangle (and Wolfe Wave ) before deciding to take any action. When it does and I see bearish price action, then I will SHORT this pair for a ride down in a wave (5) and heading to the 1.00000 level. For now, I am just watching and waiting.....

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The 3 Buddha is completed, and the bull is going to push uptrend to 1.17 and then will retrace down to 1.09. That my opinion,just opinion
the 240 chart shows a flag indicating a down bearish move I agree with you the target to be 10,000 so when do you suggest the right time to sell possibly from 11120
Yes, there is a flag forming. Good observation. But thing about a flag pattern is that you don't know when it will end. Best thing to do with a flag pattern is to wait for the breakout of the lower bounds of the flag. For now, my analysis indicates some upward movement. But as I also say, there is yet to be another leg down in this pair in a wave 5 and this wave 5 may go pretty far. Possibly down to the 60 cents level. It is also possible that this flag may only lead to a very short move down in extending the wave 3 ending as I also indicated is a possibility. Then comes the wave 4 up into the 72-74 cents level. Then the wave 5 down. But here's where you should be careful. If the flag does break and go down, I do not think that is the wave 5 starting. Without a clear wave 4, the next major move down isn't likely to happen just yet.

Then again, this is all just one man's opinion and the market could prove me entirely wrong! It's happened before and will happen again..and again...and again...! Good luck!
HaroMaster EverythingForex
Possibly down to 60 cents... are you sure EF?
SORRY! I've got so many charts and set ups in my head right now, I'm getting pairs mixed up!!! I thought I was commenting on the AUDUSD pair! My mistake! Forget everything I just said above in my last comment.....except for the last part about one man's opinion.

Yes, there is a flag forming but it's not a very good flag, IMO. Still, there looks to be one more move down in EUR as well. As I state in my analysis, for me a good time to sell will be when I see bearish price action if/when prices move up and meet the upper trend line of the triangle OR if/when it moves down and meets the lower trend line of the triangle, consolidates there and shows more bearish price action. Both places would be good selling points. But in both cases, must be patient and watch the price action first! Don't jump the gun and just sell just because it reached the trend lines. Good luck!

And sorry again for the mistaken comment!

peterB EverythingForex
Thank you for your suggestions I am not sure what 60cents mean I only joined the team recently I assume it means 11060 the risk reward is better if it gets down to 11072 I will wait to see the next move Tuesday.
peterB peterB
sorry I meant the other way round 060 is better than 074
No. That is not what I meant at all. The 60 cents I was referring to is about the AUDUSD pair and not this EURUSD pair. The 60 cents has nothing to do with the EURUSD pair.
EDIT: In my "Scenario #1" charts, I mistakenly named the "crab" as a "Bullish DEEP Crab". In that scenario, that crab is a regular crab and NOT a DEEP Crab. In "Scenario #2" it would be a DEEP Crab. Sorry for that mistake!
complete and helpful as always; thank you
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