The main chart above is a 1Hr TF chart. In the previous week's trade, I traded on the expectancy that prices would break down and head towards the bottom of the larger . Price action has proved me wrong on that assumption. In fact, prices headed up and has now barely come up short of the upper of that . So now what? Two weeks ago, prices spiked up and broke through that upper . By doing so, it set the precedent that maybe that was losing it's relevance. In this scenario, I take that into consideration and now expect that prices will exceed that again easily. For now, that has halted the current rise in prices. I'm showing that wave iii of the 5-wave uptrend is ending at this point and wave iv is underway. After the wave iv is finished, wave v will commence and pass through that .
But here's where it will get interesting. I have drawn out a POTENTIAL pattern that completes right near the B Point line of the 2 larger bat patterns seen on the . Also, at that point, the extension of wave iii places the 1.618 (the golden ratio) extension right there as well. And of course, the . of wave (A) is also right there. That makes a pretty strong cluster of resistance that I think would mark the end of the wave (B) and send prices down in wave (C). This cluster of resistance also acts like a magnet drawing prices towards it. So I now have a strong expectancy that prices will follow this scenario.
4HR CHART - POTENTIAL + . = Wave (B) Ending
DAILY CHART -BULLISH Scenario Updated With Latest Price Action + Projected Price Action
DAILY CHART - Notes On Possible Future Price Action
These are just my reference notes that I place for future use. This is part of how I analyze the markets and try to map out future targets. After I have those targets, I can then work backwards from them and project future subwave price action and possible patterns that might support them. I'd thought I'd include them so you can see how I work my charts.
WEEKLY CHART - Closeup On The Wave iii + Completed Profit Targets
My super long term trade on this pair could yield +27,000 pips! I am holding my LONG positions that I BOUGHT back on August 4th @1.08520 as per my trade analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Whole Lots A patterns point the way UP!"). I have also accumulated several other LONG positions on more LONG trades along the way.
OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart Showing Multiple Patterns + YEARLY Wave Count. Now In A Wave (3) Down
MONTHLY CHART - Closeup On The Current Decline: Wave Count
CONTINUED IN COMMENTS SECTION.......
Year-to-date Profits: +5,794 pips.
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Obviously, this analysis does differ from my bearish analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS #1: EURUSD: BEARISH In Downtrend But How Far Will Go?") and is more in line with my preferred bullish analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS #2: Bullish Scenario.Triangle Holds Wave (C) UP!") although my wave counts are now updated and differ somewhat from before. I have ALWAYS been VERY BULLISH on this pair and that sentiment has not changed. I am looking for opportunities to add LONG positions at every turn while taking advantage of some good SHORTING opportunities as well.
Currently, I am waiting for wave iv to complete in order to go LONG in a trend continuation trade to catch the wave v up. But when wave v completes, I will be looking to go SHORT and catch the wave (C) down.
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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