EverythingForex
Long

FULL ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Going UP 4 Now. Wave (B) Ending Soon

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
4216 20 43
Every weekend, I re-analyze the previous weeks price action             with a fresh perspective by starting over from scratch and see if I can come up a better scenario if the previous week's trades were not going as planned. And in this pair, my recent trades were not exactly on point. So I went back and thought more about it and see what I missed. This new wave count and scenario is what resulted. Let me first describe what I am now thinking prices will do in the short-term and how I will trade it.

The main chart above is a 1Hr TF chart. In the previous week's trade, I traded on the expectancy that prices would break down and head towards the bottom trend line of the larger triangle pattern . Price action             has proved me wrong on that assumption. In fact, prices headed up and has now barely come up short of the upper trend line of that triangle pattern . So now what? Two weeks ago, prices spiked up and broke through that upper trend line . By doing so, it set the precedent that maybe that trend line was losing it's relevance. In this scenario, I take that into consideration and now expect that prices will exceed that trend line again easily. For now, that trend line has halted the current rise in prices. I'm showing that wave iii             of the 5-wave             uptrend is ending at this point and wave iv is underway. After the wave iv is finished, wave v will commence and pass through that trend line .

But here's where it will get interesting. I have drawn out a POTENTIAL bearish crab pattern that completes right near the B Point line of the 2 larger bat patterns seen on the DAILY chart . Also, at that point, the harmonic extension of wave iii             places the 1.618 (the golden ratio) extension right there as well. And of course, the . 618 retracement of wave (A) is also right there. That makes a pretty strong cluster of resistance that I think would mark the end of the wave (B) and send prices down in wave (C). This cluster of resistance also acts like a magnet drawing prices towards it. So I now have a strong expectancy that prices will follow this scenario.

4HR CHART - POTENTIAL Bearish Crab + . 618 Retracement = Wave (B) Ending
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DAILY CHART -BULLISH Scenario Updated With Latest Price Action             + Projected Price Action
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DAILY CHART - Notes On Possible Future Price Action
These are just my reference notes that I place for future use. This is part of how I analyze the markets and try to map out future targets. After I have those targets, I can then work backwards from them and project future subwave price action             and possible patterns that might support them. I'd thought I'd include them so you can see how I work my charts.
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WEEKLY CHART - Closeup On The Wave iii             + Completed Butterfly Profit Targets
My super long term trade on this pair could yield +27,000 pips! I am holding my LONG positions that I BOUGHT back on August 4th @1.08520 as per my trade analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Whole Lots A patterns point the way UP!"). I have also accumulated several other LONG positions on more LONG trades along the way.
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OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart Showing Multiple Patterns + YEARLY Wave Count. Now In A Wave (3) Down
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MONTHLY CHART - Closeup On The Current Decline: Wave Count
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Genius!!!
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Only if it works out the way I see it......;-)
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Target for completion of the crab would be right at my next target zone from this analysis:
EUR/USD: Breakout trade, going long on a retracement!

After that seeking confirmation first but there could be other formations forming:
EUR/USD: Possible bearish bat or crab forming.
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i think there is a better, dare i say more likely scenario - an alt bat of some sorts. hope im not missing anything.
Possible alternate BAT pattern emerging.
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That's not an alt bat. Not really sure even where you are placing your B and C points. But anyway, where you have placed your reversal zone is right where the upper trend line of the triangle pattern is. It could very well reverse from there due to the triangle resistance. If it does, I'll be ready for that as well as per my bearish analysis I posted last week. But, as I see it, I'm now favoring the scenario in this post. Good luck!
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Ozayevable EverythingForex
here, lemme help you out.
snapshot
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Oh, ok. Still not an alt bat. You do know that an alt bat B point is >=.386, right? And for me, I don't like using the same bar for both B and C point. B and C points need to be clearly defined on the TF you are drawing the pattern on. If you are using the 1min TF to define your B and C points, then you are also trading on the 1min TF.
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nice work.. well noted
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thanks!
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I agree on this idea... My analysis is also showing the same thing... Hope it'll happen as planned. Cheers mate!
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