DanV
Short

EURUSD - ANOTHER SHORT TRADE IN THE MAKING

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Whilst waiting for the planned long entry published in my chart about month ago (link below), there appears to be possibly another short trade developing. Last one worked out fairly well (link below).

Here is the summary:
After spike a high of 18th September, the price declined in what appears to be an impulsive move of 5 minor waves. If correct, this could be wave (a) and the overlapping bounce since looks like wxy move of which we are in near completion of wave c of "y" in the form of ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) structure. So after minor retrace a final swing into 1. 1400             -1.1425 zone could set ideal shorting zone with stop just above 18th Sept high around 1.1470

The decline anticipated towards 1.100 is wave (c) of the second zigzag which should unfold in wave 5 impulsive move. Hence, decent short trade could be considered as per the details on the chart.

Entry for short: 1. 1400             -1.1425
Stop Loss: 1.1470
Target: 1.110 zone

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
CapnOscar
a year ago
Waterfalll :)
Reply
DanV MOD CapnOscar
a year ago
Could well be. Thanks.
Reply
Dan, hi.
I believe your wave B would be too large if it followed that direction. Too much time compared to A to be the same degree.
I think the intraday chart is making it confusing, and it's actually a simpler thing if you look at weekly waves.
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
a year ago
Thanks for your comments. I agree with your comments on time but not sure if it is relevant. Overall choppy move in a range is hard to count. So will need some clarity before longer term direction become clear. For now I still have long bias on EURUSD. So whatever this is carving out I think is consolidation before move up in longer cycle.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DanV
a year ago
From a traditional Elliott Wave perspective, surely.
I like Neowave's way of plotting data, and the ideas behind it. So, in that regard, I think either the move up started, or the wave count is something else, and your A isn't part of the same structure as this 'B'.
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
a year ago
I am not too familiar with Neowave and find it little confusing for some reason. However, my label marking the high spike high of 24th Aug 2015 is simply to say that so far we have a zigzag move we have which for now we can mark it as Wave A or Wave W. From my understanding If we say wave A then it suggest we could expect wave C which has 5 wave impulse structure. On the other hand if we say it is W then that suggest on completion of retracement wave X we could expect another zizgag in theory. There is no way of knowing which of the 2 are correct, or even both are wrong as many Elliottewave Practitioner are suggesting that Aug spike high is actually top of wave 4 of bearish cycle that began in 2014.

However, I think that important low of the bearish cycle that commence in 2014 has been formed (but will review if necessary), see chart below
EURUSD - COULD IT BE THE "COME BACK KID"? - UPDATED


That same chart updated with August 2015 high shown as wave A or W and expecting retracement currently under way. ON completion (1.1100 zone or even little lower) of which, I anticipate another strong impulsive move or a to the upside. Please see updated chart referred to above.
snapshot
. For now this is enough for me and hope it clarifies my labels.
+1 Reply
ChatchaiVong
a year ago
thank so much
Reply
DanV MOD ChatchaiVong
a year ago
You are welcome.
Reply
Perfect! Thanks man
Reply
DanV MOD morshedul.sazid
a year ago
Thank you for the compliment. Appreciate that.
Reply
peter.kralmail
a year ago
this is nice and complex analysis. Stoploss above nearest structure and takeprofit based on the waves. Good job, I hope that this trade will move in your favor
Reply
DanV MOD peter.kralmail
a year ago
Thanks for your kind comment.
Reply
Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Same view here sir, I love it.
Short EURUSD at resistance
Reply
DanV MOD Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Excellent. Thanks for sharing your chart.
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes DanV
a year ago
Anytime Dan, I have a short bias on everything against the dollar, I also posted a bullish DXY chart.
So now the dollar has topped? First long then short.
Reply
DanV MOD Yahia.Awes
a year ago
You could be right. DXY chart is little puzzling right now. But if your chart plays out then we might get more than just a retracement I am suggesting on EURUSD. It will get clearer with more price data hopefully. Thanks again.
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes DanV
a year ago
Anytime sir.
Reply
DanV MOD
a year ago
UPDATE: Trade stopped out. Will review counts in view of this. For now it seems that we might get retest of Aug high and larger trend which I think is to the upside could be in play. When Hourly bearish inside bar was taken out might have been the early clue of trade failing if you were watching price action. Once there is some clarity I will republish with updated counts. Thanks for your support
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DanV
a year ago
Yes, I think my count's getting validation now:
snapshot

Looks like expanding triangle, more time in B than in A, 3 part legs, this next leg should be sharper too.
I'm not 100% sure of the longer term count, but it looks like the decline from the highest high is some form of ABC or complex correction, monthly scale.
Like your AB=CD highlights.
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
a year ago
I am not sure if it is developing expanding triangle. Move of the 23rd Sept low to date is still too overlapping suggesting corrective move of previous impulsive decline. That suggest that may be what we have is Expanding Zigzag ie Wave B ending above the origin of wave (a) on my chart. If correct we still should get a short opportunity but from a little higherlevel.
Reply
DanV MOD
a year ago
UPDATE: Republished trade setup after having been stopped out but with valid counts
EURUSD - ANOTHER SHORT TRADE IN THE MAKING: UPDATE
+1 Reply
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