ON the left side the Euro Contract is overbought as you can see on the which is out of the channel. This is an overbought condition on a trend during which, the dollar gained about 30%. Overbought conditions in such downtrends should be sold without hesitation. If this week will turn the impulse blue, I will probably end up doubling my dollar position which is about 400% at the moment.
The major signals are on the (and 4H which I chose not to publish for more clarity). On Friday the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came very very weak and what looked like a good day for the dollar reversed completely and closed weak (good for Eurusd ). Surprise surprise, on Monday, all that momentum was lost and the dollar had a great day across the board. This is the Friday - Monday momentum lost which I described many times on my charts, it is a great signal, especially when it goes with the bigger trend.
The divergence is not great here, but it looks good on the 4H chart or other dollar such as USDPLN , USDILS , USDHUF for example.
My outlook for the future is that if the data from the US gets better, the dollar will roar. If Greece has a default, the Euro will collapse. If Greece gets a bailout extension, it will probably be a buy the rumor sell the fact type of trade, which is what happened last time and I made good money on that. These are of course some scenarios that I play in my head, I do not consider them certainties. The only thing certain is that the dollar is in a great trend which is obvious if you look at any chart and that what happened since the 18th of March (when I called for a pause on the dollar trend by the way) does not look like a top, and rather a shakeout/consolidation.
Parity is coming! Do not fight one the greatest trends.