On the left side, we have the weekly chart which shows climactic action. Note that march is a turnover month, and that adds to the huge bar. However, looking at the with , the high was not on the roll-over day, so the week counts as a selling climax. The is incredibly oversold, and it is getting back inside the channel.
Going on to the daily, I outlined the levels where I sold this pair, mainly because I posted lots of comments about how the dollar was when everybody looked for corrections, and the replies I got were full of hate, unfortunately. Fortunately, I was right. The momentum from Friday was lost on Monday. That is a serious pattern in my book, however, without the extreme bullishness surrounding the dollar I wouldn't have taken a position. On the 18th, the FED dropped patience, as Hilsenrath told us a week before, and this was a clear buy the rumor sell the fact trade. I went long EURUSD after the press conference.
Yesterday's rally in the dollar looks to me like amateur buying, I doubt that real money bought again. This of course, is a personal opinion, and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
I expect the dollar to correct in the coming weeks. I have no idea about the size of this correction, but personally I would like to buy it again at 1.15 on EURUSD . I will keep a small short on the dollar, but I doubt it will be a real money maker. I have been extremely on the dollar since the summer, and I have tens of charts to prove it. I am now neutral to . This has been the best trade.
I'd love it if we got a nice wide predictable range going on the DXY and made a lot of easy money on it until September :)