KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD
(1 day, log scale)
-price was meeting resistance (horizontal & downward sloping trendline), has turned
-the April/May negative divergence worked out
-at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend).
-we have a slightly lower high, that by itself counts as a negative for EURUSD
-RSI has now turned to the downside, but it remained within the bull range 40-70.
That last point is a positive for EUR. That COULD be working out in favour of EUR, as it COULD develop into a sustainable uptrend (= breaking of the downward trend line + 1.1450 level = might then work out to an overbought RSI reading).
BUT : we're certainly NOT there yet. The downtrend has not yet proven wrong.
In all: neutral EURUSD on the daily, I expect the trendlines (both up & down) to be tested again, before this whole thing resolves either to the upside (that requires a lot of positive stuff...) or a continuation to the downside (once Greece seems to be "over with" (yeah - sure, "over" won't mean "over" of course :).
(1 day, log scale)
-price was meeting resistance (horizontal & downward sloping trendline), has turned
-the April/May negative divergence worked out
-at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend).
-we have a slightly lower high, that by itself counts as a negative for EURUSD
-RSI has now turned to the downside, but it remained within the bull range 40-70.
That last point is a positive for EUR. That COULD be working out in favour of EUR, as it COULD develop into a sustainable uptrend (= breaking of the downward trend line + 1.1450 level = might then work out to an overbought RSI reading).
BUT : we're certainly NOT there yet. The downtrend has not yet proven wrong.
In all: neutral EURUSD on the daily, I expect the trendlines (both up & down) to be tested again, before this whole thing resolves either to the upside (that requires a lot of positive stuff...) or a continuation to the downside (once Greece seems to be "over with" (yeah - sure, "over" won't mean "over" of course :).
