EURUSD at a short term bottom

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
When I see this chart...(of the EURUSD daily, 1 year)
It reminds me of a good old nursery rhyme that may or may not have anything to do with markets and psychology:
But here it is anyway...

"All the King's horses and all the King's men, couldn't put humpty together again"

Perhaps the way to look at it is this:
All the King's sellers and all the King's henchmen, couldn't put the Euro to a new low.

All that effort and no new low.

And here is the caveat to this trade setup...
"If there is a new low,
then watch out below..."

If you think about all of the negative news that this market has dealt with in the past days, weeks and months, then it is no wonder that this market has been under pressure relative to the US Dollar . Despite our problems here in the USA with our finances, clearly the problems are far worse in Euro-La-La-Land.

What I am noticing now that has my attention is that there has been a dramatic wave of selling and even "short selling", which you can see at finviz.com and graph out the commitments of traders going back many months. What is seems
to show me now is that the smart money is positioning itself long the Euro here.

Technically, since the price ranges have contracted down here (note last Wed & Thu), that means the buyers are there and the sellers are coming down to meet them and the buyers are absorbing the sellers. Notice now too that the market has moved above last Wednesday and Thursday's highs and that could mean the risk is very low here for a trade on the long side.

Risk: 3 average ranges: Reward is also about 3 average ranges.

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