timwest

EURUSD at a short term bottom

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1423 28 7
When I see this chart...(of the EURUSD             daily, 1 year)
It reminds me of a good old nursery rhyme that may or may not have anything to do with markets and psychology:
But here it is anyway...

"All the King's horses and all the King's men, couldn't put humpty together again"

Perhaps the way to look at it is this:
All the King's sellers and all the King's henchmen, couldn't put the Euro             to a new low.

All that effort and no new low.

And here is the caveat to this trade setup...
"If there is a new low,
then watch out below..."

If you think about all of the negative news that this market has dealt with in the past days, weeks and months, then it is no wonder that this market has been under pressure relative to the US Dollar             . Despite our problems here in the USA with our finances, clearly the problems are far worse in Euro-La-La-Land.

What I am noticing now that has my attention is that there has been a dramatic wave of selling and even "short selling", which you can see at finviz.com and graph out the commitments of traders going back many months. What is seems
to show me now is that the smart money is positioning itself long the Euro             here.

Technically, since the price ranges have contracted down here (note last Wed & Thu), that means the buyers are there and the sellers are coming down to meet them and the buyers are absorbing the sellers. Notice now too that the market has moved above last Wednesday and Thursday's highs and that could mean the risk is very low here for a trade on the long side.

Risk: 3 average ranges: Reward is also about 3 average ranges.

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john-drek
4 years ago
Why do you think that euro will go under 1,26. Now is very big pressure for going down but how you have told the buyers absorb sellers. I think that the buyers are big financial institutions like banks ... They can also absorb sellers when it will go under 1,255-1,260.
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timwest PRO john-drek
4 years ago
The longer term forecast is based purely on the weaker economic environment in Europe than in the US. Short term the market is oversold and due for a bounce, but I view the bounce will have a cap and that will provide a low risk short-selling opportunity. Let's take one step at a time and see how the advance unfolds first. Thanks for asking.
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john-drek timwest
4 years ago
snapshot
. It will be very interesting, situation can be changed quickly, in this graph is my opinion for the sitution. Thanks for answer.
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timwest PRO
4 years ago
This morning's announcement by the OECD at 4:15AM (from seekingalpha) has driven the EURUSD back down to test support. Watch last Wed's & Thu's highs for support as they are holding right now.

"The OECD cuts its 2012 eurozone GDP forecast to -0.1% from +0.2%; U.S. forecast raised to +2.4% from +2%"
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john-drek timwest
4 years ago
where did you read this informations? bloomberg reuters?
Reply
timwest PRO john-drek
4 years ago
"(from seekingalpha)"
Reply
claudiopeter
4 years ago
eurusd will go long for now see related fundamental like help sended to spain
Reply
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