4xForecaster

$EUR Hit Worst-Case Scenario Target; Expect Recoil | #forex $USD

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1676 46 12
Traders,

As we anticipated a 1-4 Line validation following the completion of the Wolfe Waves pattern above, price did fall as expected, but fell below the qualitative target at TG-Lo = 1.28377 - 05 SEP 2014. As we turned to the model for its "Worst-Case Scenario" (i.e.: the outer most bearish value considered), TG-x = 1.26696 - 13 SEP 2014 was defined as such abysmal target.

At this point, same model expect a significant retracement. Consider "1.33307 - 13 SEP 2014" as a possible target, which is an approximation of a Scott Carney's 5-0 pattern completion level.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Thkns! You mean 13 OCT?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO lololorenzo
Hello @lololorenzo - Dates associated with targets ("TG") refer to the time they were made public.

Hence, TGx = 1.26696 - 13 SEP 2014 indicates that the forecast was released on the 13th of September, 2014.

David
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david thanks for this post
+1 Reply
Congratulations David! No vacation for target hitting ;). Have a good vacation for you!
+1 Reply
Thanks D! Seeing as you didn't label EURUSD as "long," are we to assume it is a bit too early to be long?
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30 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$EURUSD hit Wolfe Waves' 1-4 TP Line; Retrace probable per 5-0 Pattern:

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via @tradingview | $EUR $USD #forex
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Traders,

Note that Wolfe Waves' 1-4 Profit-Line was validated as of today. This went beyond ALL targets defined by predictive/forecasting model. A 50% retracement per 5-0 pattern would respond to current Scott Carney's Bullish Shark completion.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
04 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$EURUSD mulls potential time-consumptive rallying here, albeit with limited upside

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@tradingview | $EUR $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
07 OCT 2014 - Update:

From "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chat room - Link to room: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO
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$EURUSD - Daily:

As price is returning to TG-x = 1.26696 - 13 SEP 2014 after it hit the Wolfe Wave's 1-4 Profit Line, one needs to prepare for a possible rallying.

As noted before, the expected rallying could cover as much as 50% of the recent downswing, as price would effectively react from Scott Carney's bullish Shark, and move to complete a 5-0 pattern of that same discoverer - See daily chart.

Since price has moved slightly lower, this caused the potential 50% retracement line to be moved a bit lower.

It is now defined as:

- 5-0 pattern's Point-D = 1.32462.

David Alcindor
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
16 OCT 2014 - Update:

As the $EUR sought deeper depth than those defined iitially by the model (see TG-Lo and TG-x in the original chart,), it appeared that the Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW") provided the real geometric drive for price to continue to descent, as it sought to validate the pattern's 1-4 Line (which is what the WW will almost always seek to accomplish). However, in the initial analysis, I was relying more on the predictive/forecasting model than on this powerful pattern. As a testament to its sturdy characteristics, the pattern forced the model to consider a deeper TG-x target, which now remains unanswered after the 1-4 Line was finally hit (see the charts below retracing this development up to today's):

30 SEP 2014: Price finally hits WW's 1-4 Line after hitting TG-1, then TGx:
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16 OCT 2014: Price walks down WW's 1-4 Line, carving lower-lows; Challenges the predictive/forecasting model to define a lower TG-x, which now remains unanswered:
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Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Which matches some banks short targets, wonder if those are still open...Excellent insights as usual David.
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
That will pressure gold and silver lower at this moment?
+1 Reply
@Sokun - The positive correlation between $XAUUSD and $EURUSD occurs via $USD behavior. I would look for dollar indices as an alternative view on how Gold and Euro could be affected by their common Dollar denominator - David
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Sokun 4xForecaster
Gassho. That makes sense.
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nikokoev 4xForecaster
David, from EW perspective if with 1-4 line wave 3 is finished, then TG-x 1.24052 is good level for wave 5. But how you think - is it 50% too deep correction for wave 4. Thank you!
+1 Reply
Hello @nikokoev - A 50% correction would not violate the Elliott Wave Principles rules. That is, Wave-4 is still allowed to rally all the way to, but not beyond the termination level of Wave-1. So, froma EWP perspective, this option remains available - David
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
I was not mean that will violate EW. Just from current market condition. And the structure maybe will look like ZZ ?
+1 Reply
@nikokoev - The structure could be as simple as a ZZ, or it may take on a more complex internal series of leading diagonal plus a W-X-Y-XX-Z plus ending diagonal, or some wicked mixture of geometric potion - David
+1 Reply
18 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$EURUSD reacted off of WW's TP Line. Yet, TG-x remains unanswered; RSI might offer clues:

snapshot


via @tradingview $USD
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Long trade on EURUSD
snapshot
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HamedAghajani PRO HamedAghajani
Tried also to identify important levels of support based on a simply Fibonacci analysis here
Long trade on EURUSD
, based on the move that the pair had since Quarter 4, 2001.
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nikokoev 4xForecaster
Hello David! What is expected when we have this type divergence?
snapshot
+1 Reply
Hello @nikokoev - A rally is expected, looking purely at the divergence. However, it does not meet the model's criteria for a rally - David
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@nikokoev - Also, ona pure wave count, it would need to retrace further down: The impulse at the left corner of the chart in a bearish swing, whereas the reaction to above 1.28500 is a correction defining 4th wave, and the most recent impulse (bearish swing in the direction of the major trend) is the beginning of a 5th wave down. At the illustrated level, an internal 4th wave is getting defined, so an internal 5th wave remains pending to the downside. It's easier of course with the retrospective, but the model remains bearish over that same period of time, so it would not change the expectation or the directional bias - David
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31 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$EURUSD nears bearish target @1.24052; Low-prob 50% retracement follows:

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via @tradingview | $EUR $USD #EURO #Forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Hi David! I was start counting impulsive move for wave 5, but price overlap subwave 1. Now I think, that IF wave 4 is complete, wave 5 will be ED (will drop with triples). From other side IF wave 4 is not complete now we see running flat, wich is not tipical for wave 4.
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+1 Reply
Niko, the wave count is still good. Sub-wave-1 has not been infringed upon. The retracement does NOT count as a 4th wave retracement - David
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Maybe an expanded flat overlapping wave 5 of the last impulse inside that ZZ? I think we're riding a 3rd inside the 5th wave too, but got into the trade using a different methodology that Tim West is teaching me. Interesting to see what you guys think, EW wise.
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Thank you David! Very nice explanation. I was thinking that once price break wave 1 should not touch it. Thanks again!
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If it's a wave 1, it shouldn't while running through the impulse...I have a stop in that region, so it better not :p
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nikokoev IvanLabrie
I was have sell stop at the break, but I was stop out then, because price reverse.
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nikokoev IvanLabrie
Ivan, becareful with stop in this region. IF wave 5 will be Ending Diagonal your stop can be triggered
snapshot
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snapshot
Entry in green, stop in red...I'd think I'm safe.
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Hi Ivan- What is TW_UB?
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IvanLabrie PRO HamedAghajani
One of the Tim West indicators from the key hidden levels pack...I use that and rgmov for forex mostly. It colors bars based on the previous bar. Useful for entries and confirming trend direction.
+1 Reply
nikokoev IvanLabrie
I really hope and wish your stop be in safe mate :)
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Niko, you will see that most often than not, a retesting of the price level where Wave-1 terminated will occur more often than not - David
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Yes David, I see it and I feel it :)
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
David, I note that fib extension for subwave 3 from wave 5 is very close ti your defined level :)
snapshot
+1 Reply
Hello @nikokoev - The more agreement across different technical tools, the higher the likelihood of a significant impact on price. That's great - David
+1 Reply
07 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$EURUSD hit worst-case scenario target @ 1.24052; Retracement potential pending:

snapshot


via @tradingview $EUR USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
hello david today if NFP up announced EurusD with break 1.23500 falls to 1.22600
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HamedAghajani PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
Hi Manijeh Khanoom, how do you calculate these levels. Just pondering.-Hamed
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hello Hamed 1.23500 under the new support level 1.23630 I think if Nfp up announced with break 1.23500 falls to 1.22600
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HamedAghajani PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
Yes. Thanks. I meant how do you calculate these numbers; 1.2350;1.2260;1.2363 Would you please share a chart, if I am not asking a lot. Kindly, Hamed
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27 NOV 2014 - Update: ... Feels like we've been chasing this one down. It remains a low-probability play due to prior inaccurate/low precision forecasts ...

From Twitter:
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$EURUSD chart illustrates low-probability Scott Carney's 5-0 completion:

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via tradingview | $EUR $USD #forex #ECB
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Serse 4xForecaster
I David could you please update this chart
Reply
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